Suppose that in a certain small town it either rains or IS sunny every day. A meteorologist notes that when it is sunny in this town, it will be sunny the next day with probability 0.4. If it rains, it will be sunny the next day with probability 0.7. Answer the following questions: 1. What is the probability that it will rain the next day if it was sunny the previous day? .6 2. Suppose that the weatherman estimates there is a 90% chance of showers today. Find the probability vector representing this estimation where the state 1 is sunny and state 2 is rainy. 3. Based on the meteorologist's estimation, what is the chance of rain tomorrow? 4. Based on the meteorologist's estimation, What is the chance of rain two days from now?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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## Weather Probability Analysis

In a small town, the weather can be either rainy or sunny each day. A meteorologist has observed certain probabilities regarding the weather patterns:

- If it is sunny, the probability of it being sunny the next day is 0.4.
- If it rains, the probability of it being sunny the next day is 0.7.

### Questions:

1. **What is the probability that it will rain the next day if it was sunny the previous day?**

   - Answer: 0.6

2. **Suppose the weatherman estimates there is a 90% chance of showers today. Find the probability vector representing this estimation where state 1 is sunny, and state 2 is rainy.**

   - Probability Vector: [ 0.1, 0.9 ]

3. **Based on the meteorologist’s estimation, what is the chance of rain tomorrow?**

   - Answer: [0.63]

4. **Based on the meteorologist’s estimation, what is the chance of rain two days from now?**

   - Answer: [0.621]

This analysis helps in understanding how weather probabilities are calculated based on past data and estimations.
Transcribed Image Text:## Weather Probability Analysis In a small town, the weather can be either rainy or sunny each day. A meteorologist has observed certain probabilities regarding the weather patterns: - If it is sunny, the probability of it being sunny the next day is 0.4. - If it rains, the probability of it being sunny the next day is 0.7. ### Questions: 1. **What is the probability that it will rain the next day if it was sunny the previous day?** - Answer: 0.6 2. **Suppose the weatherman estimates there is a 90% chance of showers today. Find the probability vector representing this estimation where state 1 is sunny, and state 2 is rainy.** - Probability Vector: [ 0.1, 0.9 ] 3. **Based on the meteorologist’s estimation, what is the chance of rain tomorrow?** - Answer: [0.63] 4. **Based on the meteorologist’s estimation, what is the chance of rain two days from now?** - Answer: [0.621] This analysis helps in understanding how weather probabilities are calculated based on past data and estimations.
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