Sunshine Smoothies Company (SSC) manufactures and distributes smoothies. It is considering the introduction of a "weight loss" smoothie. The project would require a $4 million investment outlay today (t = 0). The after-tax cash flows would depend on whether the weight loss smoothie is well received by consumers. There is a 30% chance that demand will be good, in which case the project will produce after-tax cash flows of $2 million at the end of each of the next 3 years. There is a 70% chance that demand will be poor, in which case the after-tax cash flows will be $1 million for 3 years. The project is riskier than the firm's other projects, so it has a WACC of 12%. The firm will know if the project is successful after receiving first year's cash flows. After receiving the first year's cash flows it will have the option to abandon the project. If the firm decides to abandon the project the company will not receive any cash flows after t = 1 , but it will be able to sell the assets related to the project for $3.5 million after taxes at t = 1.

Essentials Of Investments
11th Edition
ISBN:9781260013924
Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Publisher:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
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Sunshine Smoothies Company (SSC) manufactures and distributes smoothies.

It is considering the introduction of a "weight loss" smoothie.

The project would require a $4 million investment outlay today (t = 0).

The after-tax cash flows would depend on whether the weight loss smoothie is well received by consumers.

There is a 30% chance that demand will be good, in which case the project will produce after-tax cash flows of $2 million at the end of each of the next 3 years.

There is a 70% chance that demand will be poor, in which case the after-tax cash flows will be $1 million for 3 years.

The project is riskier than the firm's other projects, so it has a WACC of 12%.

The firm will know if the project is successful after receiving first year's cash flows.

After receiving the first year's cash flows it will have the option to abandon the project.

If the firm decides to abandon the project the company will not receive any cash flows after t = 1

, but it will be able to sell the assets related to the project for $3.5 million after taxes at t = 1.

 

Please review my concept of calculate the NPV of each possible options (4 options), considering time value of money. Does it right and does I have to adjust 3.5M that will be occur if sell the project to present value? If the below concept is wrong could you guide me how to calculate the NPV each possible options (4 options)

Remark : I use excel for calculation so the value of income in PV formula is negative value.

My understanding…

  1. Demand will be poor and abandon project after T1
    =-4000000+70%*PV(12%,1,0,-1000000,0) +PV(12%,1,0,-3500000,0)
  2. Demand will be poor and continue operating until T3
    =-4000000+70%*PV(12%,1,0,-1000000,0)+PV(12%,2,0,-1000000,0)+PV(12%,3,0,-1000000,0)
  3. Demand will be good and abandon project after T1
    =-4000000+30%*PV(12%,1,0,-2000000,0)+PV(12%,1,0,-3500000,0)
  4. Demand will be good and continue operating until T3
    =-4000000+30%*PV(12%,1,0,-2000000,0)+PV(12%,2,0,-2000000,0)+PV(12%,3,0,-2000000,0)

Thank you for your answering.

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