STATE: Andrew plans to retire in 40 years. He plans to invest part of his retirement funds in stocks, so he seeks out information on past returns. He learns that from 1966 to 2015, the annual returns on S&P 500 had mean 11.0% and standard deviation 17.0%. PLAN: The distribution of annual returns on common stocks is roughly symmetric, so the mean return over even a moderate number of years is close to Normal. We can use the Central Limit Theorem to make an inference. SOLVE: What is the probability, p1, assuming that the past pattern of variation continues, that the mean annual return on common stocks over the next 40 years will exceed 10% ? (Enter your answer rounded to two decimal places.)

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**Question 11 of 23**

**STATE:** Andrew plans to retire in 40 years. He plans to invest part of his retirement funds in stocks, so he seeks out information on past returns. He learns that from 1966 to 2015, the annual returns on the S&P 500 had a mean of 11.0% and a standard deviation of 17.0%.

**PLAN:** The distribution of annual returns on common stocks is roughly symmetric, so the mean return over even a moderate number of years is close to Normal. We can use the Central Limit Theorem to make an inference.

**SOLVE:** What is the probability, \(p_1\), assuming that the past pattern of variation continues, that the mean annual return on common stocks over the next 40 years will exceed 10%? (Enter your answer rounded to two decimal places.)

\[ p_1 = \]

---

There are no graphs or diagrams in the image, only text related to a statistical problem concerning investment returns.
Transcribed Image Text:**Question 11 of 23** **STATE:** Andrew plans to retire in 40 years. He plans to invest part of his retirement funds in stocks, so he seeks out information on past returns. He learns that from 1966 to 2015, the annual returns on the S&P 500 had a mean of 11.0% and a standard deviation of 17.0%. **PLAN:** The distribution of annual returns on common stocks is roughly symmetric, so the mean return over even a moderate number of years is close to Normal. We can use the Central Limit Theorem to make an inference. **SOLVE:** What is the probability, \(p_1\), assuming that the past pattern of variation continues, that the mean annual return on common stocks over the next 40 years will exceed 10%? (Enter your answer rounded to two decimal places.) \[ p_1 = \] --- There are no graphs or diagrams in the image, only text related to a statistical problem concerning investment returns.
The image presents a statistics exercise on calculating probabilities. Here’s the transcription suitable for an educational website:

---

**Exercise: Probability Calculation**

\( p_1 = \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ \)

**Question:** What is the probability, \( p_2 \), that the mean return will be less than 5%? (Enter your answer rounded to two decimal places.)

\( p_2 = \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ \)

**CONCLUDE:** Select the correct conclusion based on the results.

---

**Additional Information:**
- The source of the question is: Moore, *The Basic Practice of Statistics, 8e*.
- Publisher: W.H. Freeman.

This exercise is designed to enhance skills in probability theory and statistical analysis.
Transcribed Image Text:The image presents a statistics exercise on calculating probabilities. Here’s the transcription suitable for an educational website: --- **Exercise: Probability Calculation** \( p_1 = \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ \) **Question:** What is the probability, \( p_2 \), that the mean return will be less than 5%? (Enter your answer rounded to two decimal places.) \( p_2 = \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ \) **CONCLUDE:** Select the correct conclusion based on the results. --- **Additional Information:** - The source of the question is: Moore, *The Basic Practice of Statistics, 8e*. - Publisher: W.H. Freeman. This exercise is designed to enhance skills in probability theory and statistical analysis.
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