Some electronic devices are better used than new. The failure rate is higher when they are new than when they are six months old. For example, 51.10% of the personal music players of a particular brand have a flaw. If the player has a flaw, it dies in the first six months. If it does not have this flaw  then only 8.900% fail in the first six months. Yours died after you had it for three months. What are the chances that it has this flaw?

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
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Author:Amos Gilat
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Some electronic devices are better used than new. The failure rate is higher when they are new than when they are six months old. For example, 51.10% of the personal music players of a particular brand have a flaw. If the player has a flaw, it dies in the first six months. If it does not have this flaw  then only 8.900% fail in the first six months. Yours died after you had it for three months. What are the chances that it has this flaw?

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