Shawn is playing a game with a set of cards. Half of them are blue and the other half are yellow. In the game, the player guesses the color of the top card, looks at the card, and returns the card to the deck. The player continues to do this, shuffling the deck after each guess. Shawn has guessed the first three attempts as "blue” and has been correct on each guess. He says he will guess "yellow” for the next card since a yellow card is due to happen. Is Shawn’s reasoning correct? Yes, Shawn has guessed well so far, so it is clear that he cannot miss. No, all of the cards have been blue so far, so the next one must also be blue. Yes, half of the cards are yellow, so the fourth card should be yellow to compensate for the first three cards being blue. No, the law of large numbers says that the proportion of yellow cards should approach the true probability after many trials.

Shawn is playing a game with a set of cards. Half of them are blue and the other half are yellow. In the game, the player guesses the color of the top card, looks at the card, and returns the card to the deck. The player continues to do this, shuffling the deck after each guess. Shawn has guessed the first three attempts as "blue” and has been correct on each guess. He says he will guess "yellow” for the next card since a yellow card is due to happen. Is Shawn’s reasoning correct? Yes, Shawn has guessed well so far, so it is clear that he cannot miss. No, all of the cards have been blue so far, so the next one must also be blue. Yes, half of the cards are yellow, so the fourth card should be yellow to compensate for the first three cards being blue. No, the law of large numbers says that the proportion of yellow cards should approach the true probability after many trials.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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Shawn has guessed the first three attempts as "blue” and has been correct on each guess. He says he will guess "yellow” for the next card since a yellow card is due to happen. Is Shawn’s reasoning correct?

Yes, Shawn has guessed well so far, so it is clear that he cannot miss.

No, all of the cards have been blue so far, so the next one must also be blue.

Yes, half of the cards are yellow, so the fourth card should be yellow to compensate for the first three cards being blue.

No, the law of large numbers says that the proportion of yellow cards should approach the true probability after many trials.

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