Say the probability of a large earthquake in any given year in California is about 0.0125. Let X be the number of years from now till the next mid-sized earthquake.    What distribution does X follow? What assumptions do you need to make to say that X has this distribution?   Compute the expected number of years from now till the next large earthquake. (Identify units please)  What is the variance and standard deviation of the number of years until the next large earthquake? (round your answers to 4 decimals and identify units)   What is the probability that a large earthquake occurs 10 years from now (some time in the 10th year)? (round answer to 4 decimals)

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Say the probability of a large earthquake in any given year in California is about 0.0125. Let X be the number of years from now till the next mid-sized earthquake. 

  1.   What distribution does X follow? What assumptions do you need to make to say that X has this distribution?

  2.   Compute the expected number of years from now till the next large earthquake. (Identify units please)

  3.  What is the variance and standard deviation of the number of years until the next large earthquake? (round your answers to 4 decimals and identify units)

  1.   What is the probability that a large earthquake occurs 10 years from now (some time in the 10th year)? (round answer to 4 decimals)

Expert Solution
Step 1

Geometric Distribution : 

The geometric distribution represents the number of failures before you get a success in a series of Bernoulli trials.  

A geometric distribution is defined as a discrete probability distribution of a random variable “x” which satisfies some of the conditions.

The geometric distribution conditions are : 

  • A phenomenon that has a series of trials  . 
  • Each trial has only two possible outcomes – either success or failure . 
  • The probability of success is the same for each trial .
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