Samples from the posterior distribution of two parameters, μ and σ, were obtained using a statistical software package. Using these samples the following numerical summaries were produced. node mean sd mu MC error 2.5% 5.0% median 95.0% 97.5% start sample 0.6636 1.459 0.02027 -2.217 -1.845 0.6573 3.056 3.565 1000 5001 sigma 59.79 20.67 0.3235 31.78 37.89 55.96 78.14 109.4 1000 5001 (a) Write down an estimate of the posterior mean and 95% equal-tailed credible interval for o. Comment on the shape of the posterior distribution for o. (b) Was the simulation run for long enough? Justify your answer.

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Samples from the posterior distribution of two parameters, μ and σ, were obtained using a statistical
software package. Using these samples the following numerical summaries were produced.
node mean
sd
mu
MC error 2.5% 5.0% median 95.0% 97.5% start sample
0.6636 1.459 0.02027 -2.217 -1.845 0.6573 3.056 3.565 1000 5001
sigma 59.79 20.67 0.3235 31.78 37.89 55.96 78.14 109.4 1000 5001
(a) Write down an estimate of the posterior mean and 95% equal-tailed credible interval for o.
Comment on the shape of the posterior distribution for o.
(b)
Was the simulation run for long enough? Justify your answer.
(c) Suppose the simulation is run for a further 50000 iterations.
(1) Is the width of the credible interval for o likely to increase, decrease or stay roughly the
same? Justify your answer.
(11) Is the MC error for o likely to increase, decrease or stay roughly the same? Justify your
answer.
Transcribed Image Text:Samples from the posterior distribution of two parameters, μ and σ, were obtained using a statistical software package. Using these samples the following numerical summaries were produced. node mean sd mu MC error 2.5% 5.0% median 95.0% 97.5% start sample 0.6636 1.459 0.02027 -2.217 -1.845 0.6573 3.056 3.565 1000 5001 sigma 59.79 20.67 0.3235 31.78 37.89 55.96 78.14 109.4 1000 5001 (a) Write down an estimate of the posterior mean and 95% equal-tailed credible interval for o. Comment on the shape of the posterior distribution for o. (b) Was the simulation run for long enough? Justify your answer. (c) Suppose the simulation is run for a further 50000 iterations. (1) Is the width of the credible interval for o likely to increase, decrease or stay roughly the same? Justify your answer. (11) Is the MC error for o likely to increase, decrease or stay roughly the same? Justify your answer.
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