Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Yarena Supply CO. over the past 13 months are as follows: Sales in P1,000 Month Sales in P1,000 Month 11 January 14 August 14 February 17 September 15 March 12 October 10 April 14 November 15 May 16 December 17 June 11 January 11 July Required suing a moving average with three periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February?
Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Yarena Supply CO. over the past 13 months are as follows:
|
Sales in P1,000 |
Month |
Sales in P1,000 |
Month |
|
11 |
January |
14 |
August |
|
14 |
February |
17 |
September |
|
15 |
March |
12 |
October |
|
10 |
April |
14 |
November |
|
15 |
May |
16 |
December |
|
17 |
June |
11 |
January |
|
11 |
July |
|
|
Required suing a moving average with three periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February?
Problem 1:
Mendelev Company is a small producer of several coffee products. One of the products is Kapeng Barrack’o that is sold to retail outlets. Jensen Mendelev must decide how many boxes of the Kapeng Barrack’o to produce each month. The probability that the demand will be six boxes is 0.1, for seven boxes is 0.3, for 8 boxes is 0.5, and for 9 boxes is 0.1. The cost of every box is P400, and the price that Jensen gets for each box is P800. Unfortunately, any boxes not sold at the end of the month are of no value due to spoilage. How many boxes of Kapeng Barrack’o should Jensen produce each month?
Problem 2:
Mark Ewing has decided to enter contract with uber service provider in his area. The driver offers a car variety of mileage or distance to be travelled to him. All contracts were to be signed for three years. The first option has a monthly rent of P3,000, with a total mileage allowance of 36,000 kilometers (an average of 12,000 kilometers per year) and a cost of P35 per kilometer for any kilometers over 36,000. The following table summarizes each of the Uber Service Contract offered to him:
|
3-Year Contract |
Monthly Cost |
Mileage Allowance |
Cost Per Excess Kilometer |
|
Option A |
P3,000 |
30,000 |
P 35 |
|
Option B |
P3,500 |
45,000 |
P 25 |
|
Option C |
P4,000 |
54,000 |
P 15 |
Mark has estimated that, during the 3 years of the agreement, there is a 40% chance he will drive an average of 12,000 kilometers per year, a 30% chance he will drive an average of 15,000 miles per year, and a 30% chance that he will drive 18,000 miles per year. In evaluating the options, Mark would like to keep his costs as low as possible.
Required:
- Develop a cost table for this situation
- What decision would Mark make if he were optimistic?
- What decision would Mark make if he were pessimistic?
- What decision would Mark make if he wanted to minimize her expected cots (monetary value)?
- Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this problem.
Problem 3:
A group of doctors is considering the construction of a private clinic. IF the medical demand is high (favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a profit of P1,000,000. If the market is not favorable they could lose P400,000. If they don’t proceed at all, there is no cost. In the absence of any
market research , the best the physician can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the clinic will be successful.Required:
Construct a decision tree to help analyze this problem. What should the doctors do?
Problem 4:
Continuing with problem 3, a firm open to conduct a market research involving the proposed venture and using analytical tools can give an accurate information, thus gave the following info:
Probability of a favorable market given a favorable study is 0.82
Probability of an unfavorable market given a favorable study is 0.18
Probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable study is 0.11
Probability of an unfavorable market given an unfavorable study is 0.89
Probability of a favorable research study is 0.55
Probability of an unfavorable research study is 0.45
Required:
- Develop a new decision tree for the doctors to reflect the options now open with the market study.
- Use the EMV approach to recommend a strategy.
- What is the expected value of information?
Problem 5:
Without any numbers, kindly explain what possible problem is being decided by the decision tree below?
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