Saflok is an electronic door lock system made in Troy, Michigan, and used in modern hotels and other establishments. To open a door, you must insert the electronic card into the lock slip. Then a green light indicates that you can turn the handle and enter; a yellow light indicates that the door is locked from inside, and you cannot enter. Suppose that 90% of the time when the card is inserted, the door should open because it is not locked from inside. When the door should open, a green light will appear with probability 0.98. When the door should not open, a green light may still appear (an electronic error) 5% of the time. Suppose that you just inserted the card and the light is green. What is the probability that the door will actually open?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Saflok is an electronic door lock system made in Troy, Michigan, and used
in modern hotels and other establishments. To open a door, you must insert the electronic card into the lock slip. Then a green light indicates that you can turn the
handle and enter; a yellow light indicates that the door is locked from inside, and
you cannot enter. Suppose that 90% of the time when the card is inserted, the door
should open because it is not locked from inside. When the door should open, a
green light will appear with probability 0.98. When the door should not open,
a green light may still appear (an electronic error) 5% of the time. Suppose that you
just inserted the card and the light is green. What is the probability that the door will
actually open?

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