Risky Investment of $500 The Sure Thing NPV = $300 Good Times Payoff = $1,000 75% 25% Bad Times Payoff = $100 Risky Investment is worse, it has NPV = $208 Risky Investment is better, it has NPV = $363 Risky Investment is better, it has NPV = $545 Risky Investment is worse, it has NPV = $150 Expand Project (Cost = $200) Status Quo Payoff = $0 Payoff = $500 Sell Off Assets Payoff = $200 50% 50% Adjust Business Strategy Payoff = $100 Payoff = $0

Essentials Of Investments
11th Edition
ISBN:9781260013924
Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Publisher:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
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The decision tree below describes a “sure thing” investment and a “risky” investment. Use backward induction to evaluate which is the better investment. Assume all values are already given in present value terms.

OO
Risky Investment
of $500
The Sure Thing
NPV = $300
Good Times
Payoff = $1,000
75%
25%
Bad Times
Payoff = $100
Risky Investment is worse, it has NPV = $208
Risky Investment is better, it has NPV = $363
Risky Investment is better, it has NPV = $545
Risky Investment is worse, it has NPV = $150
Expand Project
(Cost = $200)
Status Quo
Payoff = $0
Payoff = $500
Sell Off Assets
Payoff = $200
50%
50%
Adjust Business Strategy
Payoff = $100
Payoff = $0
Transcribed Image Text:OO Risky Investment of $500 The Sure Thing NPV = $300 Good Times Payoff = $1,000 75% 25% Bad Times Payoff = $100 Risky Investment is worse, it has NPV = $208 Risky Investment is better, it has NPV = $363 Risky Investment is better, it has NPV = $545 Risky Investment is worse, it has NPV = $150 Expand Project (Cost = $200) Status Quo Payoff = $0 Payoff = $500 Sell Off Assets Payoff = $200 50% 50% Adjust Business Strategy Payoff = $100 Payoff = $0
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