Richelle Ng is the owner of Ring Marketing. She is considering marketing a new product that will cost $45,000. If Richelle decides to market the product and the product is successful, Ring Marketing will have revenues of $80,000. If the product does not succeed, the company will only have revenues of $33,000. Richelle estimates that there is a 0.52 probability that the product will succeed. Richelle can also decide to conduct a test market for $2,400 before deciding to go to the full market. The probability that the test market will be positive is estimated at 75%. If the test market is positive, Richelle feels the chance of product success is 90%. If the test market is negative, Richelle feels the chance of product success at only 15%.

Holt Mcdougal Larson Pre-algebra: Student Edition 2012
1st Edition
ISBN:9780547587776
Author:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Publisher:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Chapter11: Data Analysis And Probability
Section11.8: Probabilities Of Disjoint And Overlapping Events
Problem 2C
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Richelle Ng is the owner of Ring Marketing. She is considering marketing a new product that
will cost $45,000. If Richelle decides to market the product and the product is successful, Ring
Marketing will have revenues of $80,000. If the product does not succeed, the company will
only have revenues of $33,000. Richelle estimates that there is a 0.52 probability that the
product will succeed.
Richelle can also decide to conduct a test market for $2,400 before deciding to go to the full
market. The probability that the test market will be positive is estimated at 75%.
If the test market is positive, Richelle feels the chance of product success is 90%.
If the test market is negative, Richelle feels the chance of product success at only 15%.
3|Page
a) Draw a decision tree. Ensure that the intermediate values are put on the proper
branches of the problem. On the Decision Tree output, prune the branches that are not
needed and highlight the entire optimal strategy.
b) State in words the optimal strategy for Ring Marketing (all stages) and the associated
EMV.
Transcribed Image Text:Richelle Ng is the owner of Ring Marketing. She is considering marketing a new product that will cost $45,000. If Richelle decides to market the product and the product is successful, Ring Marketing will have revenues of $80,000. If the product does not succeed, the company will only have revenues of $33,000. Richelle estimates that there is a 0.52 probability that the product will succeed. Richelle can also decide to conduct a test market for $2,400 before deciding to go to the full market. The probability that the test market will be positive is estimated at 75%. If the test market is positive, Richelle feels the chance of product success is 90%. If the test market is negative, Richelle feels the chance of product success at only 15%. 3|Page a) Draw a decision tree. Ensure that the intermediate values are put on the proper branches of the problem. On the Decision Tree output, prune the branches that are not needed and highlight the entire optimal strategy. b) State in words the optimal strategy for Ring Marketing (all stages) and the associated EMV.
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