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Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average (mean) value expected to occur during all possible circumstances. To compute an asset's expected return under a range of possible circumstances (or states of nature), multiply the anticipated return expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence. Consider the following case: Aaron owns a two-stock portfolio that invests in Blue Llama Mining Company (BLM) and Hungry Whale Electronics (HWE). Three- quarters of Aaron's portfolio value consists of BLM's shares, and the balance consists of HWE's shares. Each stock's expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in different market conditions are detailed in the following table: Market Condition Probability of Occurrence 0.25 0.45 0.30 Strong Normal Weak Blue Llama Mining 15% 9% -12% Hungry Whale Electronics 21% 12% -15%

Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average (mean) value expected to occur during all possible circumstances. To compute an asset's expected return under a range of possible circumstances (or states of nature), multiply the anticipated return expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence. Consider the following case: Aaron owns a two-stock portfolio that invests in Blue Llama Mining Company (BLM) and Hungry Whale Electronics (HWE). Three- quarters of Aaron's portfolio value consists of BLM's shares, and the balance consists of HWE's shares. Each stock's expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in different market conditions are detailed in the following table: Market Condition Probability of Occurrence 0.25 0.45 0.30 Strong Normal Weak Blue Llama Mining 15% 9% -12% Hungry Whale Electronics 21% 12% -15%

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average (mean) value expected to occur during all possible circumstances. To compute an asset's expected return under a range of possible circumstances (or states of nature), multiply the anticipated return expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence. Consider the following case: Aaron owns a two-stock portfolio that invests in Blue Llama Mining Company (BLM) and Hungry Whale Electronics (HWE). Three- quarters of Aaron's portfolio value consists of BLM's shares, and the balance consists of HWE's shares. Each stock's expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in different market conditions are detailed in the following table: Market Condition Probability of Occurrence 0.25 0.45 Strong Normal Weak 0.30 Blue Llama Mining 15% 9% -12% Hungry Whale Electronics 21% 12% -15% Calculate expected returns for the individual stocks in Aaron's portfolio as well as the expected rate of return of the entire portfolio over the three possible market conditions next year. • The expected rate of return on Blue Llama Mining's stock over the next year is • The expected rate of return on Hungry Whale Electronics's stock over the next year is • The expected rate of return on Aaron's portfolio over the next year is The expected returns for Aaron's portfolio were calculated based on three possible conditions in the market. Such conditions will vary from time to time, and for each condition there will be a specific outcome. These probabilities and outcomes can be represented in the form of a continuous
Transcribed Image Text:Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average (mean) value expected to occur during all possible circumstances. To compute an asset's expected return under a range of possible circumstances (or states of nature), multiply the anticipated return expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence. Consider the following case: Aaron owns a two-stock portfolio that invests in Blue Llama Mining Company (BLM) and Hungry Whale Electronics (HWE). Three- quarters of Aaron's portfolio value consists of BLM's shares, and the balance consists of HWE's shares. Each stock's expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in different market conditions are detailed in the following table: Market Condition Probability of Occurrence 0.25 0.45 Strong Normal Weak 0.30 Blue Llama Mining 15% 9% -12% Hungry Whale Electronics 21% 12% -15% Calculate expected returns for the individual stocks in Aaron's portfolio as well as the expected rate of return of the entire portfolio over the three possible market conditions next year. • The expected rate of return on Blue Llama Mining's stock over the next year is • The expected rate of return on Hungry Whale Electronics's stock over the next year is • The expected rate of return on Aaron's portfolio over the next year is The expected returns for Aaron's portfolio were calculated based on three possible conditions in the market. Such conditions will vary from time to time, and for each condition there will be a specific outcome. These probabilities and outcomes can be represented in the form of a continuous
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