Relative Strength Relative Strength Percentage This Week Last Week of Weeks Stocks stronger Stocks stronger 80 Bonds stronger 10 Equally Strong Bonds stronger Stocks stronger 10 20 Bonds stronger 70 Equally Strong 10 Equally Strong stocks stronger 30 Bonds stronger 30 Equally Strong 40 Assume that state 1 is Stocks stronger, that state 2 is Bonds stronger, and that state 3 is Equally Strong. Find the transition matrix for this Markov process. P =

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### Markov Process in Financial Markets

Consider the following table depicting the relative strength of stocks and bonds over a certain period:

| Relative Strength Last Week | Relative Strength This Week | Percentage of Weeks |
|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|---------------------|
| Stocks stronger             | Stocks stronger             | 80                  |
|                             | Bonds stronger              | 10                  |
|                             | Equally strong              | 10                  |
| Bonds stronger              | Stocks stronger             | 20                  |
|                             | Bonds stronger              | 70                  |
|                             | Equally strong              | 10                  |
| Equally strong              | Stocks stronger             | 30                  |
|                             | Bonds stronger              | 30                  |
|                             | Equally strong              | 40                  |

### Assumptions
- **State 1**: Stocks stronger
- **State 2**: Bonds stronger
- **State 3**: Equally strong

### Objective
Find the transition matrix for this Markov process.

The transition matrix \( P \) is represented as:

\[ 
P = \begin{bmatrix} 
 & & \\
 & & \\
 & & \\
\end{bmatrix}
\]

Each cell in the matrix corresponds to the probability of transitioning from one state to another based on historical data. Fill in the matrix with the appropriate probabilities derived from the table.
Transcribed Image Text:### Markov Process in Financial Markets Consider the following table depicting the relative strength of stocks and bonds over a certain period: | Relative Strength Last Week | Relative Strength This Week | Percentage of Weeks | |-----------------------------|-----------------------------|---------------------| | Stocks stronger | Stocks stronger | 80 | | | Bonds stronger | 10 | | | Equally strong | 10 | | Bonds stronger | Stocks stronger | 20 | | | Bonds stronger | 70 | | | Equally strong | 10 | | Equally strong | Stocks stronger | 30 | | | Bonds stronger | 30 | | | Equally strong | 40 | ### Assumptions - **State 1**: Stocks stronger - **State 2**: Bonds stronger - **State 3**: Equally strong ### Objective Find the transition matrix for this Markov process. The transition matrix \( P \) is represented as: \[ P = \begin{bmatrix} & & \\ & & \\ & & \\ \end{bmatrix} \] Each cell in the matrix corresponds to the probability of transitioning from one state to another based on historical data. Fill in the matrix with the appropriate probabilities derived from the table.
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