Real-Time Data Analysis Exercise* "Real-time data provided by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis. Using data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, analyze the effects of a positive supply shock. The U.S. economy experienced a supply shock with the spread of information communication technology and the Internet after 1995. Click the following link to view the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index data from FRED. Using the Series ID PCEPI, plot the the inflation rate from 1982 to 2007 as the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index from the same month in the previous year. P₁ The inflation rate for March of 2023 (shown as 2023-03-01 in FRED) was %. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) The inflation rate for August of 1979 (shown as 1979-08-01 in FRED) was %. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) Price level Q AS Q AD Output

Real-Time Data Analysis Exercise The following table contains the most recent household expenditure data from FRED*. *Real-time data provided by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis. Using the data from FRED, compute the value for personal consumption expenditures for the first quarter of 2021. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.) Title Value $ 15,069.2 billion Personal Consumption Expenditures Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods Personal Consumption Expenditures: Nondurable Goods $1,938.577 billion $3,269.759 billion $1,049.521 billion $9,860.896 billion Private Residential Fixed Investment Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services According to these data, the share of total household expenditures devoted to goods is percent. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.)

The following table reports 2018 transactions that occurred in the United States. Prices in 2018 and 2016 (base year) are also given. Use the worksheet to answer questions below. Please make sure to show any formulas you used, calculations and your work. i. Which of the listed transactions should not be used in U.S. GDP calculation? Please include one reason for each transaction you think should not be included in U.S. GDP calculation. ii. Based on the transactions you decided to include in U.S. GDP, calculate nominal GDP in 2018. ii. Based on the transactions you decided to include in U.S. GDP, calculate real GDP in 2018. iii. Calculate the GDP Deflator in 2018. Price per Unit in Price per Unit Quantity in Item 2016 in 2018 2018 (Base Year) Bottles Wine from France $15 $20 10 Boxes of Cereal produced in Battle Creek, MI $5 $4 20 Used Tires $12 $15 5 Shares of Twitter Stock $8 $10 15 Hours of Swimming Lessons at the Y in $4 $6 8 Kalamazoo, MI GDP deflator in 2018 was... Answer:

A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives are SR1 = 0.9, SR2 = 0.95, SR3 = 1.05, and SR4 = 1.1. The trend equation is: Ft = 11 + 3t. Over the past nine quarters, demand has been as follows: %3D Period, t: 1 4 7 8 9. Demand: 15 17 20 23 25 29 34 36 39 Click here for the Excel Data File Compute the MAD and tracking signal for each period. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) Period, t Demand MAD Tracking signal 1 15 2 17 3 20 4 23 25 6. 29 7 34 36 39 LO

Suppose you have an extra six months of data on demands and prices, in addition to the data in the example. These extra data points are (350,84), (385,72), (410,67), (400,62), (330,92), and (480,53). (The price is shown first and then the demand at that price.) After adding these points to the original data, use Excel’s Trendline tool to find the best-fitting linear, power, and exponential trend lines. Then calculate the MAPE for each of these, based on all 18 months of data. Does the power curve still have the smallest MAPE?

The following graph approximates business cycles in the United States from the first quarter of 1953 to the third quarter of 1957. The vertical blue bar coincides with periods of 6 or more months of declining real gross domestic product (real GDP). (? 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 YEAR Source: "Current-dollar and Real GDP," Bureau of Economics Analysis, last modified May 1, 13, accessed May 15, 13, http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls. Notice that real GDP trends upward over time but experiences ups and downs in the short run. These short-run fluctuations in real GDP are often referred to as True or False: Small ups and downs in real GDP follow a consistent, predictable pattern. O True O False Which of the following probably occurred as the U.S. economy experienced increasing real GDP in 1954? Check all that apply. O Car sales declined. O The unemployment rate declined. O Corporate profits increased. O Consumer spending declined. REAL GDP (Billions of dollars)

13. List the basic trend patterns within the projection methods and determine which is the most commonly used when analyzing demand.

Real-Time Data Analysis Exercise The following table shows the values for real potential GDP and real GDP for the past five years. *Real-time data provided by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis. Given this information, calculate the output gap for each year by calculating the percentage difference between real GDP and potential GDP. (Enter your responses as percents rounded to two decimal places. Include a minus sign if necessary.) Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real Potential GDP ($ billions) 18,788 19,163 19,524 19,865 20,224 Real GDP ($ billions) 18,609 19,036 18,509 19,610 20,015 Output Gap (%)

Construct the following graphs for the US economy using the data from FRED, BEA, and BLS websites. Select the period from 1945 (subject to data availability) until the most recent year available. You have to create each graph three different times by utilizing the data from the three different websites. Be sure to indicate the source of data for each graph. Nominal GDP and real GDP levels on the same graph (two curves on the same graph) Real GDP growth rate Unemployment rate Price Index (CPI or GDP deflator) Inflation rate

Provide an analysis for the below graph that I generated for the following question.  What is the effect of an increase in the Treasury bill rate rising from 7% to 8%, and the government bonds rate from 9% to 11%? Plot the trajectory of GDP, and discuss it.The discussion should not be less than two paragraphs. For your simulation: simulate the model for the period 1900-2000, and shock the interest rates in 1930. The plot should present the trajectory of the GDP from the original steady state (with interest rates 7% and 9%) to the new one.   find the trajectory below.