re the results of some R commands applied to beds: [1:5] # print first 5 values 24135 ammary (beds) fin. 1st Qu. 000 2.000 antile (beds, probs-c 5% 5% 95% 97.5% 1 5 6 1 (beds) 1.372583 m(beds==0) 166 Median 3.000 Mean 3rd Qu. 3.002 4.000 (0.025,0.05,0.95,0.975)) Max. 15.000

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Task 1
At a hospital, the analysis department uses Monte Carlo simulations to plan operations
during a pandemic. In the questions below, it can be assumed that the Monte Carlo model
used gives a correct picture of how the pandemic will behave in the future. In this assignment
we have access to
100,000 independent simulations from the random variable X, which is defined as the
number.
intensive care beds that will be in use on a given day in the future by patients who have
become ill as a result.
of the pandemic. These simulations are given in the R-vector beds. Below is a histogram of
the contents of beds:
5
8
20
0.00
number of intensive care beds in use
Here are the results of some R commands applied to beds:
> beds [1:5] # print first 5 values
[1] 2 4 1 3 5
> summary (beds)
Min. 1st Qu.
0.000
> sum (beds==0)
[1] 166
Median
2.000 3.000
> quantile (beds, probs=c
2.5% 5% 95% 97.5%
1
1
5 6
> sd (beds)
[1] 1.372583
Mean 3rd Qu.
3.002 4.000
(0.025,0.05,0.95,0.975))
Max.
15.000
Transcribed Image Text:Task 1 At a hospital, the analysis department uses Monte Carlo simulations to plan operations during a pandemic. In the questions below, it can be assumed that the Monte Carlo model used gives a correct picture of how the pandemic will behave in the future. In this assignment we have access to 100,000 independent simulations from the random variable X, which is defined as the number. intensive care beds that will be in use on a given day in the future by patients who have become ill as a result. of the pandemic. These simulations are given in the R-vector beds. Below is a histogram of the contents of beds: 5 8 20 0.00 number of intensive care beds in use Here are the results of some R commands applied to beds: > beds [1:5] # print first 5 values [1] 2 4 1 3 5 > summary (beds) Min. 1st Qu. 0.000 > sum (beds==0) [1] 166 Median 2.000 3.000 > quantile (beds, probs=c 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 1 1 5 6 > sd (beds) [1] 1.372583 Mean 3rd Qu. 3.002 4.000 (0.025,0.05,0.95,0.975)) Max. 15.000
1.) Are the normal distribution or Poisson
distribution reasonable models for the
outcomes in beds? Why/why not?
2.) Estimate the expectation and standard
deviation of the number of days' work needed
on the given day.
Transcribed Image Text:1.) Are the normal distribution or Poisson distribution reasonable models for the outcomes in beds? Why/why not? 2.) Estimate the expectation and standard deviation of the number of days' work needed on the given day.
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