Question 4: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Math Scores Objective: Develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to account for variability at both the student and class levels in predicting mathematics scores. Assumption: Assume that the dataset includes: ClassID: Identifier for the class the student belongs to. Tasks: 1. Data Preparation: . Load the mathnew.csv dataset, including ClassID. Explore the distribution of MathScore across different classes. 2. Model Specification: Specify a Bayesian hierarchical linear model where MathScore is predicted by individual- level predictors (StudyHours, Attendance Rate, etc.) and class-level random effects. Define appropriate prior distributions for all parameters, ensuring they are weakly informative. 3. Model Implementation: • • Implement the model using the rstan, brms, or JAGS package in R. Ensure proper convergence diagnostics by checking trace plots, R-hat statistics, and effective sample sizes. 4. Posterior Analysis: . Summarize the posterior distributions of the model parameters. • Interpret the fixed effects to understand the impact of predictors on MathScore. Analyze the variance components to assess the extent of variability at the class level. 5. Model Comparison: Compare the hierarchical model with a non-hierarchical (fixed-effects only) model using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) or Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Discuss the advantages of the hierarchical approach in this context. 6. Prediction: . Use the model to predict MathScore for new students, incorporating both individual and class-level information. Provide uncertainty estimates for the predictions.

Big Ideas Math A Bridge To Success Algebra 1: Student Edition 2015
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Section11.5: Choosing A Data Display
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Question 4: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Math Scores
Objective:
Develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to account for variability at both the student and class levels
in predicting mathematics scores.
Assumption:
Assume that the dataset includes:
ClassID: Identifier for the class the student belongs to.
Tasks:
1. Data Preparation:
.
Load the mathnew.csv dataset, including ClassID.
Explore the distribution of MathScore across different classes.
2. Model Specification:
Specify a Bayesian hierarchical linear model where MathScore is predicted by individual-
level predictors (StudyHours, Attendance Rate, etc.) and class-level random effects.
Define appropriate prior distributions for all parameters, ensuring they are weakly
informative.
3. Model Implementation:
•
•
Implement the model using the rstan, brms, or JAGS package in R.
Ensure proper convergence diagnostics by checking trace plots, R-hat statistics, and
effective sample sizes.
4. Posterior Analysis:
.
Summarize the posterior distributions of the model parameters.
•
Interpret the fixed effects to understand the impact of predictors on MathScore.
Analyze the variance components to assess the extent of variability at the class level.
5. Model Comparison:
Compare the hierarchical model with a non-hierarchical (fixed-effects only) model using
Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) or Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV).
Discuss the advantages of the hierarchical approach in this context.
6. Prediction:
.
Use the model to predict MathScore for new students, incorporating both individual and
class-level information.
Provide uncertainty estimates for the predictions.
Transcribed Image Text:Question 4: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Math Scores Objective: Develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to account for variability at both the student and class levels in predicting mathematics scores. Assumption: Assume that the dataset includes: ClassID: Identifier for the class the student belongs to. Tasks: 1. Data Preparation: . Load the mathnew.csv dataset, including ClassID. Explore the distribution of MathScore across different classes. 2. Model Specification: Specify a Bayesian hierarchical linear model where MathScore is predicted by individual- level predictors (StudyHours, Attendance Rate, etc.) and class-level random effects. Define appropriate prior distributions for all parameters, ensuring they are weakly informative. 3. Model Implementation: • • Implement the model using the rstan, brms, or JAGS package in R. Ensure proper convergence diagnostics by checking trace plots, R-hat statistics, and effective sample sizes. 4. Posterior Analysis: . Summarize the posterior distributions of the model parameters. • Interpret the fixed effects to understand the impact of predictors on MathScore. Analyze the variance components to assess the extent of variability at the class level. 5. Model Comparison: Compare the hierarchical model with a non-hierarchical (fixed-effects only) model using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) or Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Discuss the advantages of the hierarchical approach in this context. 6. Prediction: . Use the model to predict MathScore for new students, incorporating both individual and class-level information. Provide uncertainty estimates for the predictions.
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