Question 4 Around 37 degrees Centigrade is normal body temperature for children and adults. Fever is when your core body temperature is higher than 38 degrees centigrade. A certain medicine that aims to reduce body temperature has been applied to 80 patients that had a fever. The temperatures after the medicine was administrated are the following: y <- scan( text = " 37.3 37.5 37.2 38.0 37.6 37.2 37.6 37.7 37.7 37.4 37.9 37.6 37.3 36.8 37.8 37.5 37.5 37.8 37.7 37.7 37.8 37.7 37.5 36.9 37.7 37.5 37.4 37.0 37.3 37.6 37.9 37.5 37.6 37.5 37.1 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.8 37.7 37.4 37.4 37.7 37.7 37.3 37.3 37.6 37.7 37.5 37.8 37.6 37.3 37.6 37.2 37.9 38.1 37.4 37.2 37.7 37.4 38.2 37.5 37.7 37.5 37.3 37.5 36.9 37.9 37.5 38.1 37.6 37.3 37.7 37.2 37.1 37.6 37.4 37.5 37.5 37.3") We consider that the medicine is effective if the temperature is lower or equal to 38. Perform a Bayesian analysis assuming a skeptical position: we seek the probability that the medicine is effective. • Define the random variable and its distribution. Define the prior and justify your choice. • Define the posterior distribution. • Plot the prior and posterior in a graph. Comment on it. • Calculate a 95% credible interval and interpret it.
Question 4 Around 37 degrees Centigrade is normal body temperature for children and adults. Fever is when your core body temperature is higher than 38 degrees centigrade. A certain medicine that aims to reduce body temperature has been applied to 80 patients that had a fever. The temperatures after the medicine was administrated are the following: y <- scan( text = " 37.3 37.5 37.2 38.0 37.6 37.2 37.6 37.7 37.7 37.4 37.9 37.6 37.3 36.8 37.8 37.5 37.5 37.8 37.7 37.7 37.8 37.7 37.5 36.9 37.7 37.5 37.4 37.0 37.3 37.6 37.9 37.5 37.6 37.5 37.1 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.8 37.7 37.4 37.4 37.7 37.7 37.3 37.3 37.6 37.7 37.5 37.8 37.6 37.3 37.6 37.2 37.9 38.1 37.4 37.2 37.7 37.4 38.2 37.5 37.7 37.5 37.3 37.5 36.9 37.9 37.5 38.1 37.6 37.3 37.7 37.2 37.1 37.6 37.4 37.5 37.5 37.3") We consider that the medicine is effective if the temperature is lower or equal to 38. Perform a Bayesian analysis assuming a skeptical position: we seek the probability that the medicine is effective. • Define the random variable and its distribution. Define the prior and justify your choice. • Define the posterior distribution. • Plot the prior and posterior in a graph. Comment on it. • Calculate a 95% credible interval and interpret it.
College Algebra (MindTap Course List)
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Author:R. David Gustafson, Jeff Hughes
Publisher:R. David Gustafson, Jeff Hughes
Chapter2: Functions And Graphs
Section2.3: Linear Functions And Slope
Problem 106E
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Transcribed Image Text:Question 4
Around 37 degrees Centigrade is normal body temperature for children and adults. Fever is when your
core body temperature is higher than 38 degrees centigrade. A certain medicine that aims to reduce body
temperature has been applied to 80 patients that had a fever. The temperatures after the medicine was
administrated are the following:
y <- scan( text = "
37.3 37.5 37.2 38.0 37.6 37.2 37.6 37.7 37.7 37.4 37.9 37.6 37.3
36.8 37.8 37.5 37.5 37.8 37.7 37.7 37.8 37.7 37.5 36.9 37.7 37.5
37.4 37.0 37.3 37.6 37.9 37.5 37.6 37.5 37.1 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.8
37.7 37.4 37.4 37.7 37.7 37.3 37.3 37.6 37.7 37.5 37.8 37.6 37.3
37.6 37.2 37.9 38.1 37.4 37.2 37.7 37.4 38.2 37.5 37.7 37.5 37.3
37.5 36.9 37.9 37.5 38.1 37.6 37.3 37.7 37.2 37.1 37.6 37.4 37.5
37.5 37.3")
We consider that the medicine is effective if the temperature is lower or equal to 38. Perform a Bayesian
analysis assuming a skeptical position: we seek the probability that the medicine is effective.
• Define the random variable and its distribution.
• Define the prior and justify your choice.
• Define the posterior distribution.
• Plot the prior and posterior in a graph. Comment on it.
Calculate a 95% credible interval and interpret it.
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