Question 1. The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year (2019ys summer session elasses based on the following historical data: YEAR TOTAL ENROLLMENT 2015 2016 2017 2018 2,000 2,200 2,800 3,000 What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?
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![Question 1. The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year
(2019ys summer session classes based on the following historical data:
YEAR
TOTAL ENROLLMENT
y
2,000
2,200
2,800
3,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
a) What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fbf75cf67-1f75-41a7-ab0d-e3efed6b94cf%2Fc704d3c5-d9c0-4536-bb80-7401220058ef%2F56zndep_processed.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Practice Problem: Usins the data on a hospital’s revenue: (1) Use simple exponential smoothing to make predictions for the hospital’s revenues during the next four quarters with α = 0.30. (2) Use Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing(i.e. Holt’s method) to make forecasts for the hospital’s revenues during the next four quarters. Assume α = 0.05, β = 0.65, initial revenue forecast = 1209285.75 and initial trend forecast = 15714. (3) Using least-squares regression with seasonal index decomposing method, forecast the hospital’s revenues during the next four quarters.Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuterfirm serving the Boston hub, a re shown for the past 12weeks: a) Assuming an initial forecast for week I of 17,000 miles, useexponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through12. Use a= .2b) What is the MAD for tlus model?c) Compute the Cumulative Forecast Errors and tracking signals. Are they within acceptable limits?
- Assume that your stock of sales merchandise is maintained based on the forecast demand. If the distributor's sales personnel call on the first day of each month, compute your forecast sales by each of the three methods requested here. June July August ACTUAL 144 184 210 a. Using a simple three-month moving average, what is the forecast for September? Note: Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Forecast for September b. Using a weighted moving average, what is the forecast for September with weights of 0.30, 0.40, and 0.30 for June, July, and August, respectively? Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Forecast for September24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years, since the coliseum opened. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 5 would be (type number only, two decimals) 1 83 2 78 3 75 4 81 5 86 6 85 7 89 8 90 9 864. A local moving company has collected data on the number of moves they have been asked to perform over the past two years. Moving is highly seasonal, so the owner/operator, who is both burly and highly educated, decides to apply the multiplicative seasonal method to forecast the number of customers for the coming year. The equation for the trend line of yearly sales is F1 = 100 + 60t. Please forecast demand for each quarter in Year 3. (Round the forecasts to whole numbers and show all calculations t Complete the table below and forecast the sales of Year 3 by quarter. Copy the table below, paste to the answer box and fill in your answers. You need to take a picture of your work and upload the picture in next question. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Quarter Demand Quarter Demand Quarter Demand 1 28 1 45 1 43 60 2 120 140 4 49 55 4 Total 240 Total 300 Total Average Average Average For the toolbar, press ALT+F10 (PC) or ALT+FN+F10 (Mac).
- Please solve the show solution for the FORECASTING problem. ThanksQuestion DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER YEAR (1,000S OF BAGS) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table: Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer using any computer software. For these three forecasts, 3-year moving average, a weighted moving average, and a trend line, which one would you use? Explain your answer. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast the demand for fertilizer given. Assume that last period’s forecast for year 1 is 5,000 bags to begin the procedure. Would you prefer to use the exponential smoothing model or the weighted average model developed? Explain your answer.Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniques
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