Question 1. Given the optimistic estimate (to), most likely estimate (tm) and pessimistic estimate (tp) as shown in Table 1, based on the positively skewed beta probability distribution in PERT (Project Evaluation & Review Technique). Table 1: Time Chart Most Likely time tm Activity Pessimistic EXPECTED time tp Standard Optimistic time to Variance TIME (te) Deviation 3 9 Q 24 R 15 27 45 2 14 17 29 47 U 8 17 V 4 10 28 W 8 11 (a) Calculate: i. Expected activity duration. i. Standard deviation (6.) of the expected duration. ii. Variance (o.)? of the expected duration. (b) Assuming that the critical Path is P-Q-T-W = 55 days i. What is the probability the project will be completed before the scheduled time (T) of 49 days (nearest estimated number)? i. What is the probability the project will be completed before the scheduled time (T) of 59 days (nearest estimated number)? (c) Describe two (2) main differences between "Critical Path Method" and "PERT - Program Evaluation Review Technique

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
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Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Question 1.
Given the optimistic estimate (to), most likely estimate (tm) and pessimistic estimate (tp) as shown in
Table 1, based on the positively skewed beta probability distribution in PERT (Project Evaluation &
Review Technique).
Table 1: Time Chart
Most Likely Pessimistic EXPECTED
time tp
Activity
Optimistic
time to
Standard
Variance
time tm
TIME (te)
Deviation
(Oe)?
3
6
9
24
15
27
45
S
5
14
17
29
47
U
8
17
V
4
10
28
W
8
11
(a)
Calculate:
i.
Expected activity duration.
i.
Standard deviation (oe) of the expected duration.
ii.
Variance (Ge)? of the expected duration.
Assuming that the critical Path is P-Q-T-W = 55 days
i.
(b)
What is the probability the project will be completed before the scheduled time (T) of
49 days (nearest estimated number)?
i.
What is the probability the project will be completed before the scheduled time (T) of
59 days (nearest estimated number)?
(c)
Describe two (2) main differences between "Critical Path Method" and "PERT -
Program Evaluation Review Technique
Transcribed Image Text:Question 1. Given the optimistic estimate (to), most likely estimate (tm) and pessimistic estimate (tp) as shown in Table 1, based on the positively skewed beta probability distribution in PERT (Project Evaluation & Review Technique). Table 1: Time Chart Most Likely Pessimistic EXPECTED time tp Activity Optimistic time to Standard Variance time tm TIME (te) Deviation (Oe)? 3 6 9 24 15 27 45 S 5 14 17 29 47 U 8 17 V 4 10 28 W 8 11 (a) Calculate: i. Expected activity duration. i. Standard deviation (oe) of the expected duration. ii. Variance (Ge)? of the expected duration. Assuming that the critical Path is P-Q-T-W = 55 days i. (b) What is the probability the project will be completed before the scheduled time (T) of 49 days (nearest estimated number)? i. What is the probability the project will be completed before the scheduled time (T) of 59 days (nearest estimated number)? (c) Describe two (2) main differences between "Critical Path Method" and "PERT - Program Evaluation Review Technique
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