Quarterly demand for smartphones at a retailer is as shown. Year 1 2 3 4 Quarter I || IV I || ||| IV I || ||| IV I || ||| IV Demand 513 932 1,509 1,902 693 1,163 1,857 2,469 846 1,439 2,271 3,079 1,070 1,751 2,785 3,613 (a) Using the data from Years 1 and 2, calculate your initialization of seasonal factors. (b) Using the data from Years 1 and 2, and utilizing linear regression to assist in calculating D_hat, calculate the initialization of the Level and Trend Year 2 Quarter IV. (c) Using the initialization values from parts (a) and (b) initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors, forecast the demand for Years 3 and 4 using Winter's method with alpha=0.05, beta = 0.10, and gamma = 0.15. (d) Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, and MSE for the forecast (for Years 3 and 4).
Quarterly demand for smartphones at a retailer is as shown. Year 1 2 3 4 Quarter I || IV I || ||| IV I || ||| IV I || ||| IV Demand 513 932 1,509 1,902 693 1,163 1,857 2,469 846 1,439 2,271 3,079 1,070 1,751 2,785 3,613 (a) Using the data from Years 1 and 2, calculate your initialization of seasonal factors. (b) Using the data from Years 1 and 2, and utilizing linear regression to assist in calculating D_hat, calculate the initialization of the Level and Trend Year 2 Quarter IV. (c) Using the initialization values from parts (a) and (b) initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors, forecast the demand for Years 3 and 4 using Winter's method with alpha=0.05, beta = 0.10, and gamma = 0.15. (d) Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, and MSE for the forecast (for Years 3 and 4).
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Please answer all parts
Transcribed Image Text:Quarterly demand for smartphones at a retailer is as shown.
Year
1
2
3
4
Quarter
I
||
|||
IV
1
||
|||
IV
1
||
|||
IV
1
||
|||
IV
Demand
513
932
1,509
1,902
693
1,163
1,857
2,469
846
1,439
2,271
3,079
1,070
1,751
2,785
3,613
(a) Using the data from Years 1 and 2, calculate your initialization of seasonal factors.
(b) Using the data from Years 1 and 2, and utilizing linear regression to assist in calculating D_hat,
calculate the initialization of the Level and Trend Year 2 Quarter IV.
(c) Using the initialization values from parts (a) and (b) initial estimates for level, trend, and
seasonal factors, forecast the demand for Years 3 and 4 using Winter's method with
alpha=0.05, beta = 0.10, and gamma = 0.15.
(d) Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, and MSE for the forecast (for Years 3 and 4).
(e) Can you find values of a, ß, and, y that result in a lower MAD, MAPE, or MSE?
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