Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 3,000 3,300 3,502 2 1,700 2,100 2,448 3 900 1,500 1,768 4 4,400 5,100 5,882 Total 10,000 12,000 13,600
Forrest and Dan make boxes of chocolates for which the
demand is uncertain. Forrest says, “That’s life.” On the other
hand, Dan believes that some demand patterns exist that
could be useful for planning the purchase of sugar, chocolate,
and shrimp. Forrest insists on placing a surprise chocolate-
covered shrimp in some boxes so that “You never know what
you’ll get.” Quarterly demand (in boxes of chocolates) for the
last 3 years follows:
a. Use intuition and judgment to estimate quarterly demand
for the fourth year.
b. If the expected sales for chocolates are 14,800 cases for
year 4, use the multiplicative seasonal method to prepare
a
terly forecasts different from what you thought you would
get in part (a)?
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