Professor Stancey lives in a small town, where he has the option to take one out of two available routes on his way back from work. There are 4 railroad crossings in the first route. The trains all operate independently at the four crossings and the chance that he will be stopped at any particular one crossing is 0.1. Although the second route is longer, but it is blocked by two crossings that operate independently of each other and the probability that he will be stopped at a particular crossing is 0.1. On a random Monday, Professor Stancey has a meeting that he needs to attend urgently. His mental calculation reveals that regardless of the route he takes, he will be late if he is stopped by a train on at least half of the crossings that come in his way. Which route should Professor Stancey take to minimize the chances of him being late to the important meeting?  If he flips a coin to decide the route and he is late, what is the probability that he took the route that had 4-crossings?

Holt Mcdougal Larson Pre-algebra: Student Edition 2012
1st Edition
ISBN:9780547587776
Author:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Publisher:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Chapter11: Data Analysis And Probability
Section11.8: Probabilities Of Disjoint And Overlapping Events
Problem 2C
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Professor Stancey lives in a small town, where he has the option to take one out of two available routes on his way back from work. There are 4 railroad crossings in the first route. The trains all operate independently at the four crossings and the chance that he will be stopped at any particular one crossing is 0.1. Although the second route is longer, but it is blocked by two crossings that operate independently of each other and the probability that he will be stopped at a particular crossing is 0.1. On a random Monday, Professor Stancey has a meeting that he needs to attend urgently. His mental calculation reveals that regardless of the route he takes, he will be late if he is stopped by a train on at least half of the crossings that come in his way.

  1. Which route should Professor Stancey take to minimize the chances of him being late to the important meeting? 
  2. If he flips a coin to decide the route and he is late, what is the probability that he took the route that had 4-crossings?
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