Problem 3. Colquhoun (2014) claimed that, "if you use p-0.05 to suggest that you have made a discovery, you will be wrong at least 30% of the time." He uses the following example. Suppose you pick a drug at random from 1000 candidate drugs and run a randomized controlled trial to determine whether the drug truly is effective. You perform a hypothesis test that has a significance level of 0.05 and a power of 0.8. Write the null and alternative hypothesis for this hypothesis test, using words only (no math). A B. What is the probability of committing a Type I Error on this single hypothesis test? C. What is the probability of committing a Type II Error on this single hypothesis test? D. If you independently run experiments and hypothesis tests for four drugs, what is the probability of committing at least one Type I Error when performing the four hypothesis tests? 10% of the drugs truly have an effect, and the other 90% are no different from placebo. Find the E. probability that your randomly chosen drug has an effect, given that you rejected the nullhypothesis.

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Problem 3. Colquhoun (2014) claimed that, "if you use p-0.05 to suggest that you have made a
discovery, you will be wrong at least 30% of the time." He uses the following example.
Suppose you pick a drug at random from 1000 candidate drugs and run a randomized controlled trial to
determine whether the drug truly is effective. You perform a hypothesis test that has a significance level
of 0.05 and a power of 0.8.
Write the null and alternative hypothesis for this hypothesis test, using words only (no math).
A
B. What is the probability of committing a Type I Error on this single hypothesis test?
C. What is the probability of committing a Type II Error on this single hypothesis test?
D. If you independently run experiments and hypothesis tests for four drugs, what is the
probability of committing at least one Type I Error when performing the four hypothesis tests?
10% of the drugs truly have an effect, and the other 90% are no different from placebo. Find the
E.
probability that your randomly chosen drug has an effect, given that you rejected the nullhypothesis.
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 3. Colquhoun (2014) claimed that, "if you use p-0.05 to suggest that you have made a discovery, you will be wrong at least 30% of the time." He uses the following example. Suppose you pick a drug at random from 1000 candidate drugs and run a randomized controlled trial to determine whether the drug truly is effective. You perform a hypothesis test that has a significance level of 0.05 and a power of 0.8. Write the null and alternative hypothesis for this hypothesis test, using words only (no math). A B. What is the probability of committing a Type I Error on this single hypothesis test? C. What is the probability of committing a Type II Error on this single hypothesis test? D. If you independently run experiments and hypothesis tests for four drugs, what is the probability of committing at least one Type I Error when performing the four hypothesis tests? 10% of the drugs truly have an effect, and the other 90% are no different from placebo. Find the E. probability that your randomly chosen drug has an effect, given that you rejected the nullhypothesis.
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