Problem 13. A friend who lives in Los Angeles makes frequent consulting trips to Washington, D.C.; 50% of the time she travels on airline #1, 30% of the time on airline #2, and the remaining 20% of the time on airline #3. For airline #1, flights are late into D.C., 30% of the time and late into L.A. 10% of the time. For airline #2, these percentages are 25% and 20%, whereas for airline #3 the percentages are 40% and 25%. If we learn that on a particular trip she arrived late at exactly one of the two destinations, what are the posterior probabilities of having flown on airlines #1, #2, and #3? Assume that the chance of late arrival in L.A. is unaffected by what happens on the flight to D.C.
Problem 13. A friend who lives in Los Angeles makes frequent consulting trips to Washington, D.C.; 50% of the time she travels on airline #1, 30% of the time on airline #2, and the remaining 20% of the time on airline #3. For airline #1, flights are late into D.C., 30% of the time and late into L.A. 10% of the time. For airline #2, these percentages are 25% and 20%, whereas for airline #3 the percentages are 40% and 25%. If we learn that on a particular trip she arrived late at exactly one of the two destinations, what are the posterior probabilities of having flown on airlines #1, #2, and #3? Assume that the chance of late arrival in L.A. is unaffected by what happens on the flight to D.C.
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Transcribed Image Text:Problem 13. A friend who lives in Los Angeles makes frequent consulting trips to
Washington, D.C.; 50% of the time she travels on airline #1, 30% of the time on airline
#2, and the remaining 20% of the time on airline #3. For airline #1, flights are late into
D.C., 30% of the time and late into L.A. 10% of the time. For airline #2, these
percentages are 25% and 20%, whereas for airline #3 the percentages are 40% and 25%.
If we learn that on a particular trip she arrived late at exactly one of the two destinations,
what are the posterior probabilities of having flown on airlines #1, #2, and #3? Assume
that the chance of late arrival in L.A. is unaffected by what happens on the flight to D.C.
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