Problem 1 Sales of a particular product (in thousands of dollars) for the years 2009 through 2012 have been $48,000, $64,000, $83,000 and $98,000 respectively. (a) What sales would you predict for 2013, using a simple four-year moving average? (b) What sales would you predict for 2013, using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.50 for the immediate preceding year (e.g.2012) and 0.3, 0.15, and 0.05 for the three years before that?
Problem 1
Sales of a particular product (in thousands of dollars) for the years 2009 through 2012 have been $48,000, $64,000, $83,000 and $98,000 respectively.
(a) What sales would you predict for 2013, using a simple four-year moving average?
(b) What sales would you predict for 2013, using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.50 for the immediate preceding year (e.g.2012) and 0.3, 0.15, and 0.05 for the three years before that?
Problem 2
Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values:
(a) If sales are $45,000 and $50,000 for 2010 and 2011, what would you forecast for 2012? (The first forecast is equal to the actual value of the preceding year.)
(b) Given this forecast and actual 2012 sales of $53,000, what would you then forecast for 2009? ( work this backward)
Problem 3.
In problem1, taking actual 2009 sales of $48,000 as the forecast for 2010, what sales would you forecast for 2011, 2012, and 2013, using exponential smoothing and a weight (smoothing factor) a on actual values of (a) 0.4 and (b) 0.8?
Problem 3
In problem 1, what sales would you forecast for 2013, using the simple regression (least squares) method?
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