Pricilla Phranklin opened her clothing store, Pricilla Phashions, in Downtown Dover a little over three years ago. Pants, skirts, blouses, and shirts have fairly consistent sales, while things like shorts, sweater and outerwear are highly seasonal. On the other hand, dresses are a little harder to predict. Pricilla is hiring you to arrive at the best forecasting method for dresses. The following table contains three years of dress sales data Year 1 Month Demand Jan Feb Mar Apr Ap May Jun ww Jul . Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 186 222 *********** Year 2 Demand 217 220 239 2.99 362 www 727 *** 376 www 341 290 296 600 318 708 4694 Year 3 Deman d 212 245 252 376 919 757 10 404 354 324 338 618 356 713 4949

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4.         Using the actual Year-3 numbers check your forecast accuracy, by calculating CFE, MSE, MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal on microsoft Excel

### Dress Sales Data Analysis

Pricilla Phranklin opened her clothing store, Pricilla Phashions, in Downtown Dover a little over three years ago. The sales of pants, skirts, blouses, and shirts are fairly consistent, while items like shorts, sweaters, and outerwear show a high degree of seasonality. However, the sales of dresses are more challenging to predict. Pricilla is hiring you to determine the best forecasting method for dress sales.

Below is a table containing three years of dress sales data:

| Month | Year 1 Demand | Year 2 Demand | Year 3 Demand |
|-------|---------------|---------------|---------------|
| Jan   | 186           | 217           | 212           |
| Feb   | 222           | 220           | 245           |
| Mar   | 220           | 239           | 252           |
| Apr   | 356           | 362           | 376           |
| May   | 720           | 727           | 757           |
| Jun   | 367           | 376           | 404           |
| Jul   | 340           | 341           | 354           |
| Aug   | 293           | 290           | 324           |
| Sep   | 305           | 296           | 338           |
| Oct   | 600           | 600           | 618           |
| Nov   | 325           | 318           | 356           |
| Dec   | 679           | 708           | 713           |
| **Total** | **4613**   | **4694**      | **4949**      |

This data will help in analyzing the patterns and trends in dress sales over a three-year period, which is essential for developing a robust forecasting model. The data shows variability across months, indicating potential seasonality, and an overall increasing trend.
Transcribed Image Text:### Dress Sales Data Analysis Pricilla Phranklin opened her clothing store, Pricilla Phashions, in Downtown Dover a little over three years ago. The sales of pants, skirts, blouses, and shirts are fairly consistent, while items like shorts, sweaters, and outerwear show a high degree of seasonality. However, the sales of dresses are more challenging to predict. Pricilla is hiring you to determine the best forecasting method for dress sales. Below is a table containing three years of dress sales data: | Month | Year 1 Demand | Year 2 Demand | Year 3 Demand | |-------|---------------|---------------|---------------| | Jan | 186 | 217 | 212 | | Feb | 222 | 220 | 245 | | Mar | 220 | 239 | 252 | | Apr | 356 | 362 | 376 | | May | 720 | 727 | 757 | | Jun | 367 | 376 | 404 | | Jul | 340 | 341 | 354 | | Aug | 293 | 290 | 324 | | Sep | 305 | 296 | 338 | | Oct | 600 | 600 | 618 | | Nov | 325 | 318 | 356 | | Dec | 679 | 708 | 713 | | **Total** | **4613** | **4694** | **4949** | This data will help in analyzing the patterns and trends in dress sales over a three-year period, which is essential for developing a robust forecasting model. The data shows variability across months, indicating potential seasonality, and an overall increasing trend.
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