Period Demand forecast Weights Weighted Moving average Exponential Smoothing forecast X2 xy 1 1600 2 2200 3 2000 4 1600 5 2500 6 3500 7 3300 8 3200 9 3900 10 4700 11 4300 12 4400 13 a. Calculate the forecast for the data using a four-year moving average. b. Use the data to calculate the forecast for period 5 using a four-period weighted average moving average. The weights of .4, .3,.2, and .1 are assigned to the most recent, second most recent, third most recent and the fourth most recent respectively. c. Based on the data, calculate the forecast from period three using the exponential smoothing method. Assume the forecast for period two is 1600 and d. Use the data to estimate the linear trend forecast using the simple linear regression to calculate the trend line and the forecast for period 13 OR estimate the regression equation for period 13. NOTE!!! In this question, you are required to show all your calculations for each of the trend lines to enable you estimate or forecast the demand for period 13.
TABLE:3
|
Period |
Demand |
forecast |
Weights |
Weighted Moving average |
Exponential Smoothing forecast |
X2 |
xy |
|
1 |
1600 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
2200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
1600 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
2500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
3500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
3300 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
3200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
3900 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
4700 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
4300 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
4400 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
a. Calculate the forecast for the data using a four-year moving average.
b. Use the data to calculate the forecast for period 5 using a four-period weighted average moving average. The weights of .4, .3,.2, and .1 are assigned to the most recent, second most recent, third most recent and the fourth most recent respectively.
c. Based on the data, calculate the forecast from period three using the exponential smoothing method. Assume the forecast for period two is 1600 and
d. Use the data to estimate the linear trend forecast using the simple linear regression to calculate the trend line and the forecast for period 13 OR estimate the regression equation for period 13. NOTE!!! In this question, you are required to show all your calculations for each of the trend lines to enable you estimate or forecast the demand for period 13.
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