Pakistan Cricket Board in its central contract places its International players in four different categories, Category A, Category B, Category C and Emerging Players’ Category. Batsmen who are going to play in upcoming series fall into these four categories in the proportions 35 percent, 30 percent, 25 percent and 10 percent. The probability that a Category A player will got out without scoring a run is 0.01, for Category B player its 0.05, for Category C player its 0.02 and the probability that an emerging player will got out on Zero is 0.08. During a match after the fall of second wicket captain sent Muhammad Rizwan on batting and he got out on Zero. What is the probability that Muhammad Rizwan is;

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Pakistan Cricket Board in its central contract places its International players in four different categories, Category A, Category B, Category C and Emerging Players’ Category. Batsmen who are going to play in upcoming series fall into these four categories in the proportions 35 percent, 30 percent, 25 percent and 10 percent. The probability that a Category A player will got out without scoring a run is 0.01, for Category B player its 0.05, for Category C player its 0.02 and the probability that an emerging player will got out on Zero is 0.08.

During a match after the fall of second wicket captain sent Muhammad Rizwan on batting and he got out on Zero. What is the probability that Muhammad Rizwan is;

 

  1. In Category A
  2. In Category B
  3. In Category C

 

 

Expert Solution
Step 1

Given data

P(Category A) is 35 percent = 0.35

P(Category B) is 30 percent = 0.30

P(Category C) is 25 percent = 0.25

P(Emerging) is 10 percent = 0.10

Player without scoring a run is

P(without scoring | A) = 0.01

P(without scoring | B) = 0.05

P(without scoring | C) = 0.02P = 0.35×0.010.35×0.01+0.30×0.05+0.25×0.02+0.10×0.08    = 0.00350.0035+0.015+0.005+0.008    = 0.00350.0315P = 0.112

P(without scoring | Emerging) = 0.08

1.

The probability of category A is

P = (P(A)*P(without scoring | A))/P(A)*P(without scoring |A)+P(B)*P(without scoring |B)+P(C)*P(without scoring |C)+P(Emerging)*P(without scoring |Emerging)

  P = 0.35×0.010.35×0.01+0.30×0.05+0.25×0.02+0.10×0.08    = 0.00350.0035+0.015+0.005+0.008    = 0.00350.0315P = 0.112

Therefore the probability of Muhammad Rizwan in category A is 0.112

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