Over the past decade, an insurance company has had a mix of 40% whole life policies, 25% universal life policies, 25% annual renewable-term (ART) policies, and 10% other types of policies. A change in this mix over the long haul could require a change in the commission structure, reserves, and possibly investments. A random sample of 850 policies issued over the past few months gave the results shown below. Number Category Whole life 354 Universal life 215 ART 206 Other 75 Is there sufficient evidence, at the 5% level of significance, that the distribution of policy types has shifted from the historical percentages? Report your solution in the space below. Be sure to address all points for a hypothesis test.

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**Analysis of Insurance Policy Distribution Changes**

Over the past decade, an insurance company has maintained a mix of policies: 40% whole life policies, 25% universal life policies, 25% annual renewable-term (ART) policies, and 10% other types of policies. Changes in this mix over the long term could necessitate modifications in commission structures, reserves, and possibly investments. Below are the results from a random sample of 850 policies issued over the past few months:

| Category       | Number |
|----------------|--------|
| **Whole life** | 354    |
| **Universal life** | 215    |
| **ART**        | 206    |
| **Other**      | 75     |

**Hypothesis Test**

To determine if there is sufficient evidence, at the 5% level of significance, that the distribution of policy types has shifted from the historical percentages, you can conduct a hypothesis test. Follow these steps for the test:

1. **State the hypotheses:**
   - Null hypothesis (H₀): The distribution of policy types is the same as the historical distribution.
   - Alternative hypothesis (H₁): The distribution of policy types is different from the historical distribution.

2. **Calculate the expected frequencies:**
   - Based on the historical percentages:
      - Whole life: \(0.40 \times 850 = 340\)
      - Universal life: \(0.25 \times 850 = 212.5\)
      - ART: \(0.25 \times 850 = 212.5\)
      - Other: \(0.10 \times 850 = 85\)

3. **Calculate the chi-square statistic:**
   - \( \chi^2 = \sum \frac{(O_i - E_i)^2}{E_i} \)
     where \(O_i\) is the observed frequency, and \(E_i\) is the expected frequency for each category.

4. **Compare the chi-square statistic to the critical value from the chi-square distribution table with the appropriate degrees of freedom (df = number of categories - 1).**

5. **Decision rule:**
   - If the calculated chi-square statistic is greater than the critical value, reject the null hypothesis.

**Report your solution in the space below:** Be sure to address all points for a hypothesis test.
Transcribed Image Text:**Analysis of Insurance Policy Distribution Changes** Over the past decade, an insurance company has maintained a mix of policies: 40% whole life policies, 25% universal life policies, 25% annual renewable-term (ART) policies, and 10% other types of policies. Changes in this mix over the long term could necessitate modifications in commission structures, reserves, and possibly investments. Below are the results from a random sample of 850 policies issued over the past few months: | Category | Number | |----------------|--------| | **Whole life** | 354 | | **Universal life** | 215 | | **ART** | 206 | | **Other** | 75 | **Hypothesis Test** To determine if there is sufficient evidence, at the 5% level of significance, that the distribution of policy types has shifted from the historical percentages, you can conduct a hypothesis test. Follow these steps for the test: 1. **State the hypotheses:** - Null hypothesis (H₀): The distribution of policy types is the same as the historical distribution. - Alternative hypothesis (H₁): The distribution of policy types is different from the historical distribution. 2. **Calculate the expected frequencies:** - Based on the historical percentages: - Whole life: \(0.40 \times 850 = 340\) - Universal life: \(0.25 \times 850 = 212.5\) - ART: \(0.25 \times 850 = 212.5\) - Other: \(0.10 \times 850 = 85\) 3. **Calculate the chi-square statistic:** - \( \chi^2 = \sum \frac{(O_i - E_i)^2}{E_i} \) where \(O_i\) is the observed frequency, and \(E_i\) is the expected frequency for each category. 4. **Compare the chi-square statistic to the critical value from the chi-square distribution table with the appropriate degrees of freedom (df = number of categories - 1).** 5. **Decision rule:** - If the calculated chi-square statistic is greater than the critical value, reject the null hypothesis. **Report your solution in the space below:** Be sure to address all points for a hypothesis test.
### Hypothesis Test Requirements

For all questions involving a hypothesis test, be sure to include all the required steps:

1. **State the null (H₀) and alternative (Hₐ or H₁) hypotheses and identify the claim.**
2. **Using the sample data, compute the test statistic.**
3. **Using the level of significance, calculate the critical value.**
4. **Compute the p-value.**
5. **Using the test statistic and critical value, make a decision: Reject H₀ or Fail to reject H₀.**
   - Using the p-value and level of significance, make a decision: Reject H₀ or Fail to reject H₀.
6. **Interpret the results in the context of the original problem.**

#### Decision-Making Table
The table below shows how to interpret the decisions based on the hypotheses:

|                     | **Decision: Reject H₀**                                                        | **Decision: Fail to reject H₀**                                                      |
|---------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| **Claim: H₀**       | "There is sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that ... (original claim)." | "There is not sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that ... (original claim)." |
| **Claim: Hₐ**       | "The sample data support the claim that ... (original claim)."                 | "There is not sufficient sample evidence to support the claim that ... (original claim)."   |

This table helps clarify the interpretation of results depending on whether the null hypothesis (H₀) or the alternative hypothesis (Hₐ) is being tested. For example, if the null hypothesis is rejected, it suggests that there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. Conversely, if the null hypothesis fails to be rejected, it suggests that there isn't sufficient evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.

By following these steps and interpretations, you can systematically perform hypothesis testing and clearly understand the results in the context of your specific problem.
Transcribed Image Text:### Hypothesis Test Requirements For all questions involving a hypothesis test, be sure to include all the required steps: 1. **State the null (H₀) and alternative (Hₐ or H₁) hypotheses and identify the claim.** 2. **Using the sample data, compute the test statistic.** 3. **Using the level of significance, calculate the critical value.** 4. **Compute the p-value.** 5. **Using the test statistic and critical value, make a decision: Reject H₀ or Fail to reject H₀.** - Using the p-value and level of significance, make a decision: Reject H₀ or Fail to reject H₀. 6. **Interpret the results in the context of the original problem.** #### Decision-Making Table The table below shows how to interpret the decisions based on the hypotheses: | | **Decision: Reject H₀** | **Decision: Fail to reject H₀** | |---------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | **Claim: H₀** | "There is sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that ... (original claim)." | "There is not sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that ... (original claim)." | | **Claim: Hₐ** | "The sample data support the claim that ... (original claim)." | "There is not sufficient sample evidence to support the claim that ... (original claim)." | This table helps clarify the interpretation of results depending on whether the null hypothesis (H₀) or the alternative hypothesis (Hₐ) is being tested. For example, if the null hypothesis is rejected, it suggests that there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. Conversely, if the null hypothesis fails to be rejected, it suggests that there isn't sufficient evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. By following these steps and interpretations, you can systematically perform hypothesis testing and clearly understand the results in the context of your specific problem.
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