On a vacation, you ask your neighbor to water a diseased plant that you are taking care of while you are away. Without water, the plant will die with probability 0.8 and with water, it will die with probability 0.15. You are 90% sure that your neighbor will remember to water the plant. (Assuming that as long as you remember to water it). a) What is the probability that the plant will be alive when you return? b) If the plant is dead when you return, what is the probability that your neighbor forgot to water it?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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On a vacation, you ask your neighbor to water a diseased plant that you are taking care of while you are away. Without water, the plant will die with probability 0.8 and with water, it will die with probability 0.15. You are 90% sure that your neighbor will remember to water the plant. (Assuming that as long as you remember to water it).

a) What is the probability that the plant will be alive when you return?

b) If the plant is dead when you return, what is the probability that your neighbor forgot to water it?

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Introduction

Event is the possible chance of all the observation can involve. If an event happen already based on the event another event occur is known as condition event. If the likelihood of such event happen is known as conditional probability. The bayes theorem is used to compute the probability of conditional probability is defined as :

PB|A=PA|B×PBiPA|Bi×PBi

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