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Niue Vanilla has had two successive years in which the Vanilla bean harvest has stretched the firm’s capacity within their drying sheds. Pita, the manger for the drying operation must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the three possible states of nature are as shown in the table below, along with 3 possible alternatives he is considering: Do Nothing, Expand the Drying Shed operation, or Subcontract to a local farmer group who can do some of the drying. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, Pita is able to subjectively assess the probabilities of low, medium and high demand: P(low) = 0.2, P(Medium) = 0.35 and P(high) = 0.45 Compute the expected value of perfect information. How could Pita use this knowledge?

Niue Vanilla has had two successive years in which the Vanilla bean harvest has stretched the firm’s capacity within their drying sheds. Pita, the manger for the drying operation must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the three possible states of nature are as shown in the table below, along with 3 possible alternatives he is considering: Do Nothing, Expand the Drying Shed operation, or Subcontract to a local farmer group who can do some of the drying. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, Pita is able to subjectively assess the probabilities of low, medium and high demand: P(low) = 0.2, P(Medium) = 0.35 and P(high) = 0.45 Compute the expected value of perfect information. How could Pita use this knowledge?

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Niue Vanilla has had two successive years in which the Vanilla bean harvest has stretched the firm’s capacity within their drying sheds. Pita, the manger for the drying operation must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the three possible states of nature are as shown in the table below, along with 3 possible alternatives he is considering: Do Nothing, Expand the Drying Shed operation, or Subcontract to a local farmer group who can do some of the drying.

Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, Pita is able to subjectively assess the probabilities of low, medium and high demand: P(low) = 0.2, P(Medium) = 0.35 and P(high) = 0.45

  1. Compute the expected value of perfect information. How could Pita use this knowledge?

Alternatives Next Year's Demand Low Medium High $50* $60 $80 $20 $40 $50 $70 $100 Do nothing Expand Subcontract $40 *Profit in $thousand
Transcribed Image Text:Alternatives Next Year's Demand Low Medium High $50* $60 $80 $20 $40 $50 $70 $100 Do nothing Expand Subcontract $40 *Profit in $thousand
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