Nenana, Alaska Ice Breakup Data 1917 - 2021 (Jan. 1 = day 1) (Alaska Standard Time) Year Year (since 1900) Day Number Date & Time 1917 17 119.4795 April 30 at 11:30 AM 1918 18 130.3983 May 11 at 9:33 AM 1919 19 122.6066 May 3 at 2:33 PM 1920 20 131.449 May 11 at 10:46 AM 1921 21 130.2795 May 11 at 6:42 AM 1922 22 131.5559 May 12 at 1:20 PM 1923 23 128.0837 May 9 at 2:00 AM 1924 24 131.6323 May 11 at 3:10 PM 1925 25 126.7726 May 7 at 6:32 PM 1926 26 115.6691 April 26 at 4:03 PM 1927 27 132.2378 May 13 at 5:42 AM 1928 28 126.6844 May 6 at 4:25 PM 1929 29 124.6538 May 5 at 3:41 PM 1930 30 127.7941 May 8 at 7:03 PM 1931 31 129.3913 May 10 at 9:23 AM 1932 32 121.4274 May 1 at 10:15 AM 1933 33 127.8128 May 8 at 7:30 PM 1934 34 119.5885 April 30 at 2:07 PM 1935 35 134.5642 May 15 at 1:32 PM 1936 36 120.5406 April 30 at 12:58 PM 1937 37 131.8365 May 12 at 8:04 PM 1938 38 125.8434 May 6 at 8:14 PM 1939 39 118.5601 April 29 at 1:26 PM 1940 40 110.6441 April 20 at 3:27 PM 1941 41 122.0767 May 3 at 1:50 AM 1942 42 119.5615 April 30 at 1:28 PM 1943 43 117.8073 April 28 at 7:22 PM 1944 44 124.5892 May 4 at 2:08 PM 1945 45 135.4038 May 16 at 9:41 AM 1946 46 124.6948 May 5 at 4:40 PM 1947 47 122.7455 May 3 at 5:53 PM 1948 48 133.4677 May 13 at 11:13 AM 1949 49 133.5274 May 14 at 12:39 PM 1950 50 125.6767 May 6 at 4:14 PM 1951 51 119.7462 April 30 at 5:54 PM 1952 52 132.7115 May 12 at 5:04 PM 1953 53 118.6628 April 29 at 3:54 PM 1954 54 125.751 May 6 at 6:01 PM 1955 55 128.5927 May 9 at 2:13 PM 1956 56 121.9753 May 1 at 11:24 PM 1957 57 124.3962 May 5 at 9:30 AM 1958 58 118.6226 April 29 at 2:56 PM 1959 59 127.4767 May 8 at 11:26 AM 1960 60 122.8003 May 2 at 7:12 PM 1961 61 124.4802 May 5 at 11:31 AM 1962 62 131.9747 May 12 at 11:23 PM 1963 63 124.7677 May 5 at 6:25 PM 1964 64 140.4872 May 20 at 11:41 AM 1965 65 126.7927 May 7 at 7:01 PM 1966 66 127.508 May 8 at 12:11 PM 1967 67 123.4969 May 4 at 11:55 AM 1968 68 128.3934 May 8 at 9:26 AM 1969 69 117.5198 April 28 at 12:28 PM 1970 70 123.4427 May 4 at 10:37 AM 1971 71 127.8969 May 8 at 9:31 PM 1972 72 130.4976 May 10 at 11:56 AM 1973 73 123.4997 May 4 at 11:59 AM 1974 74 125.6559 May 6 at 3:44 PM 1975 75 129.576 May 10 at 1:49 PM 1976 76 122.4524 May 2 at 10:51 AM 1977 77 125.5323 May 6 at 12:46 PM 1978 78 119.6378 April 30 at 3:18 PM 1979 79 119.7615 April 30 at 6:16 PM 1980 80 119.5531 April 29 at 1:16 PM 1981 81 119.7809 April 30 at 6:44 PM 1982 82 129.7337 May 10 at 5:36 PM 1983 83 118.776 April 29 at 6:37 PM 1984 84 129.6483 May 9 at 3:33 PM 1985 85 130.6087 May 11 at 2:36 PM 1986 86 127.9517 May 8 at 10:50 PM 1987 87 124.633 May 5 at 3:11 PM 1988 88 117.3858 April 27 at 9:15 AM 1989 89 120.8434 May 1 at 8:14 PM 1990 90 113.7219 April 24 at 5:19 PM 1991 91 120.0031 May 1 at 12:04 AM 1992 92 134.2684 May 14 at 6:26 AM 1993 93 112.5427 April 23 at 1:01 PM 1994 94 118.9594 April 29 at 11:01 PM 1995 95 115.5573 April 26 at 1:22 PM 1996 96 125.5226 May 5 at 12:32 PM 1997 97 119.4365 April 30 at 10:28 AM 1998 98 109.7045 April 20 at 4:54 PM 1999 99 118.908 April 29 at 9:47 PM 2000 100 121.4497 May 1 at 10:47 AM 2001 101 127.542 May 8 at 1:00 PM 2002 102 126.8941 May 7 at 9:27 PM 2003 103 118.7656 April 29 at 6:22 PM 2004 104 114.5944 April 24 at 2:16 PM 2005 105 117.5007 April 28 at 12:01 PM 2006 106 121.7285 May 2 at 5:29 PM 2007 107 116.6576 April 27 at 3:47PM 2008 108 126.9535 May 6 at 10:53 PM 2009 109 120.8618 May 1 at 8:41 PM 2010 110 118.3790 April 29 at 9:06AM 2011 111 123.6833 May 4 at 4:24 PM 2012 112 113.8188 April 23 at 7:39PM 2013 113 139.6118 May 20, 2:41PM 2014 114 114.6583 April 25, 3:48PM 2015 115 113.6007 April 24, 2:25PM 2016 116 113.6521 April 23, 3:39PM 2017 117 120.5000 May 1, 12:00PM 2018 118 120.5542 May 1, 1:18PM 2019 119 103.0146 April 14, 12:21AM 2020 120 117.5389 April 27, 12:56PM 2021 121 119.5347 April 30, 12:50PM By how many days and hours, to the nearest whole hour, does your predicted ice breakup time for 2021 differ from the actual ice breakup time for 2021?

Nenana, Alaska Ice Breakup Data 1917 - 2021 (Jan. 1 = day 1) (Alaska Standard Time) Year Year (since 1900) Day Number Date & Time 1917 17 119.4795 April 30 at 11:30 AM 1918 18 130.3983 May 11 at 9:33 AM 1919 19 122.6066 May 3 at 2:33 PM 1920 20 131.449 May 11 at 10:46 AM 1921 21 130.2795 May 11 at 6:42 AM 1922 22 131.5559 May 12 at 1:20 PM 1923 23 128.0837 May 9 at 2:00 AM 1924 24 131.6323 May 11 at 3:10 PM 1925 25 126.7726 May 7 at 6:32 PM 1926 26 115.6691 April 26 at 4:03 PM 1927 27 132.2378 May 13 at 5:42 AM 1928 28 126.6844 May 6 at 4:25 PM 1929 29 124.6538 May 5 at 3:41 PM 1930 30 127.7941 May 8 at 7:03 PM 1931 31 129.3913 May 10 at 9:23 AM 1932 32 121.4274 May 1 at 10:15 AM 1933 33 127.8128 May 8 at 7:30 PM 1934 34 119.5885 April 30 at 2:07 PM 1935 35 134.5642 May 15 at 1:32 PM 1936 36 120.5406 April 30 at 12:58 PM 1937 37 131.8365 May 12 at 8:04 PM 1938 38 125.8434 May 6 at 8:14 PM 1939 39 118.5601 April 29 at 1:26 PM 1940 40 110.6441 April 20 at 3:27 PM 1941 41 122.0767 May 3 at 1:50 AM 1942 42 119.5615 April 30 at 1:28 PM 1943 43 117.8073 April 28 at 7:22 PM 1944 44 124.5892 May 4 at 2:08 PM 1945 45 135.4038 May 16 at 9:41 AM 1946 46 124.6948 May 5 at 4:40 PM 1947 47 122.7455 May 3 at 5:53 PM 1948 48 133.4677 May 13 at 11:13 AM 1949 49 133.5274 May 14 at 12:39 PM 1950 50 125.6767 May 6 at 4:14 PM 1951 51 119.7462 April 30 at 5:54 PM 1952 52 132.7115 May 12 at 5:04 PM 1953 53 118.6628 April 29 at 3:54 PM 1954 54 125.751 May 6 at 6:01 PM 1955 55 128.5927 May 9 at 2:13 PM 1956 56 121.9753 May 1 at 11:24 PM 1957 57 124.3962 May 5 at 9:30 AM 1958 58 118.6226 April 29 at 2:56 PM 1959 59 127.4767 May 8 at 11:26 AM 1960 60 122.8003 May 2 at 7:12 PM 1961 61 124.4802 May 5 at 11:31 AM 1962 62 131.9747 May 12 at 11:23 PM 1963 63 124.7677 May 5 at 6:25 PM 1964 64 140.4872 May 20 at 11:41 AM 1965 65 126.7927 May 7 at 7:01 PM 1966 66 127.508 May 8 at 12:11 PM 1967 67 123.4969 May 4 at 11:55 AM 1968 68 128.3934 May 8 at 9:26 AM 1969 69 117.5198 April 28 at 12:28 PM 1970 70 123.4427 May 4 at 10:37 AM 1971 71 127.8969 May 8 at 9:31 PM 1972 72 130.4976 May 10 at 11:56 AM 1973 73 123.4997 May 4 at 11:59 AM 1974 74 125.6559 May 6 at 3:44 PM 1975 75 129.576 May 10 at 1:49 PM 1976 76 122.4524 May 2 at 10:51 AM 1977 77 125.5323 May 6 at 12:46 PM 1978 78 119.6378 April 30 at 3:18 PM 1979 79 119.7615 April 30 at 6:16 PM 1980 80 119.5531 April 29 at 1:16 PM 1981 81 119.7809 April 30 at 6:44 PM 1982 82 129.7337 May 10 at 5:36 PM 1983 83 118.776 April 29 at 6:37 PM 1984 84 129.6483 May 9 at 3:33 PM 1985 85 130.6087 May 11 at 2:36 PM 1986 86 127.9517 May 8 at 10:50 PM 1987 87 124.633 May 5 at 3:11 PM 1988 88 117.3858 April 27 at 9:15 AM 1989 89 120.8434 May 1 at 8:14 PM 1990 90 113.7219 April 24 at 5:19 PM 1991 91 120.0031 May 1 at 12:04 AM 1992 92 134.2684 May 14 at 6:26 AM 1993 93 112.5427 April 23 at 1:01 PM 1994 94 118.9594 April 29 at 11:01 PM 1995 95 115.5573 April 26 at 1:22 PM 1996 96 125.5226 May 5 at 12:32 PM 1997 97 119.4365 April 30 at 10:28 AM 1998 98 109.7045 April 20 at 4:54 PM 1999 99 118.908 April 29 at 9:47 PM 2000 100 121.4497 May 1 at 10:47 AM 2001 101 127.542 May 8 at 1:00 PM 2002 102 126.8941 May 7 at 9:27 PM 2003 103 118.7656 April 29 at 6:22 PM 2004 104 114.5944 April 24 at 2:16 PM 2005 105 117.5007 April 28 at 12:01 PM 2006 106 121.7285 May 2 at 5:29 PM 2007 107 116.6576 April 27 at 3:47PM 2008 108 126.9535 May 6 at 10:53 PM 2009 109 120.8618 May 1 at 8:41 PM 2010 110 118.3790 April 29 at 9:06AM 2011 111 123.6833 May 4 at 4:24 PM 2012 112 113.8188 April 23 at 7:39PM 2013 113 139.6118 May 20, 2:41PM 2014 114 114.6583 April 25, 3:48PM 2015 115 113.6007 April 24, 2:25PM 2016 116 113.6521 April 23, 3:39PM 2017 117 120.5000 May 1, 12:00PM 2018 118 120.5542 May 1, 1:18PM 2019 119 103.0146 April 14, 12:21AM 2020 120 117.5389 April 27, 12:56PM 2021 121 119.5347 April 30, 12:50PM By how many days and hours, to the nearest whole hour, does your predicted ice breakup time for 2021 differ from the actual ice breakup time for 2021?

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Author:Amos Gilat

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Nenana, Alaska Ice Breakup Data 1917 - 2021
		(Jan. 1 = day 1)	(Alaska Standard Time)
Year	Year (since 1900)	Day Number	Date & Time
1917	17	119.4795	April 30 at 11:30 AM
1918	18	130.3983	May 11 at 9:33 AM
1919	19	122.6066	May 3 at 2:33 PM
1920	20	131.449	May 11 at 10:46 AM
1921	21	130.2795	May 11 at 6:42 AM
1922	22	131.5559	May 12 at 1:20 PM
1923	23	128.0837	May 9 at 2:00 AM
1924	24	131.6323	May 11 at 3:10 PM
1925	25	126.7726	May 7 at 6:32 PM
1926	26	115.6691	April 26 at 4:03 PM
1927	27	132.2378	May 13 at 5:42 AM
1928	28	126.6844	May 6 at 4:25 PM
1929	29	124.6538	May 5 at 3:41 PM
1930	30	127.7941	May 8 at 7:03 PM
1931	31	129.3913	May 10 at 9:23 AM
1932	32	121.4274	May 1 at 10:15 AM
1933	33	127.8128	May 8 at 7:30 PM
1934	34	119.5885	April 30 at 2:07 PM
1935	35	134.5642	May 15 at 1:32 PM
1936	36	120.5406	April 30 at 12:58 PM
1937	37	131.8365	May 12 at 8:04 PM
1938	38	125.8434	May 6 at 8:14 PM
1939	39	118.5601	April 29 at 1:26 PM
1940	40	110.6441	April 20 at 3:27 PM
1941	41	122.0767	May 3 at 1:50 AM
1942	42	119.5615	April 30 at 1:28 PM
1943	43	117.8073	April 28 at 7:22 PM
1944	44	124.5892	May 4 at 2:08 PM
1945	45	135.4038	May 16 at 9:41 AM
1946	46	124.6948	May 5 at 4:40 PM
1947	47	122.7455	May 3 at 5:53 PM
1948	48	133.4677	May 13 at 11:13 AM
1949	49	133.5274	May 14 at 12:39 PM
1950	50	125.6767	May 6 at 4:14 PM
1951	51	119.7462	April 30 at 5:54 PM
1952	52	132.7115	May 12 at 5:04 PM
1953	53	118.6628	April 29 at 3:54 PM
1954	54	125.751	May 6 at 6:01 PM
1955	55	128.5927	May 9 at 2:13 PM
1956	56	121.9753	May 1 at 11:24 PM
1957	57	124.3962	May 5 at 9:30 AM
1958	58	118.6226	April 29 at 2:56 PM
1959	59	127.4767	May 8 at 11:26 AM
1960	60	122.8003	May 2 at 7:12 PM
1961	61	124.4802	May 5 at 11:31 AM
1962	62	131.9747	May 12 at 11:23 PM
1963	63	124.7677	May 5 at 6:25 PM
1964	64	140.4872	May 20 at 11:41 AM
1965	65	126.7927	May 7 at 7:01 PM
1966	66	127.508	May 8 at 12:11 PM
1967	67	123.4969	May 4 at 11:55 AM
1968	68	128.3934	May 8 at 9:26 AM
1969	69	117.5198	April 28 at 12:28 PM
1970	70	123.4427	May 4 at 10:37 AM
1971	71	127.8969	May 8 at 9:31 PM
1972	72	130.4976	May 10 at 11:56 AM
1973	73	123.4997	May 4 at 11:59 AM
1974	74	125.6559	May 6 at 3:44 PM
1975	75	129.576	May 10 at 1:49 PM
1976	76	122.4524	May 2 at 10:51 AM
1977	77	125.5323	May 6 at 12:46 PM
1978	78	119.6378	April 30 at 3:18 PM
1979	79	119.7615	April 30 at 6:16 PM
1980	80	119.5531	April 29 at 1:16 PM
1981	81	119.7809	April 30 at 6:44 PM
1982	82	129.7337	May 10 at 5:36 PM
1983	83	118.776	April 29 at 6:37 PM
1984	84	129.6483	May 9 at 3:33 PM
1985	85	130.6087	May 11 at 2:36 PM
1986	86	127.9517	May 8 at 10:50 PM
1987	87	124.633	May 5 at 3:11 PM
1988	88	117.3858	April 27 at 9:15 AM
1989	89	120.8434	May 1 at 8:14 PM
1990	90	113.7219	April 24 at 5:19 PM
1991	91	120.0031	May 1 at 12:04 AM
1992	92	134.2684	May 14 at 6:26 AM
1993	93	112.5427	April 23 at 1:01 PM
1994	94	118.9594	April 29 at 11:01 PM
1995	95	115.5573	April 26 at 1:22 PM
1996	96	125.5226	May 5 at 12:32 PM
1997	97	119.4365	April 30 at 10:28 AM
1998	98	109.7045	April 20 at 4:54 PM
1999	99	118.908	April 29 at 9:47 PM
2000	100	121.4497	May 1 at 10:47 AM
2001	101	127.542	May 8 at 1:00 PM
2002	102	126.8941	May 7 at 9:27 PM
2003	103	118.7656	April 29 at 6:22 PM
2004	104	114.5944	April 24 at 2:16 PM
2005	105	117.5007	April 28 at 12:01 PM
2006	106	121.7285	May 2 at 5:29 PM
2007	107	116.6576	April 27 at 3:47PM
2008	108	126.9535	May 6 at 10:53 PM
2009	109	120.8618	May 1 at 8:41 PM
2010	110	118.3790	April 29 at 9:06AM
2011	111	123.6833	May 4 at 4:24 PM
2012	112	113.8188	April 23 at 7:39PM
2013	113	139.6118	May 20, 2:41PM
2014	114	114.6583	April 25, 3:48PM
2015	115	113.6007	April 24, 2:25PM
2016	116	113.6521	April 23, 3:39PM
2017	117	120.5000	May 1, 12:00PM
2018	118	120.5542	May 1, 1:18PM
2019	119	103.0146	April 14, 12:21AM
2020	120	117.5389	April 27, 12:56PM
2021	121	119.5347	April 30, 12:50PM

By how many days and hours, to the nearest whole hour, does your predicted ice breakup time for 2021 differ from the actual ice breakup time for 2021?

Every spring the city of Nenana, Alaska hosts a contest in which participants try to guess the exact minute that a wooden tripod placed on the frozen Tanana river will fall through the breaking
ice.
The contest started in 1917 as a diversion for railroad engineers, with a jackpot of $800 for the closest guess. It has grown into an event in which hundreds of thousands of entrants submit
their estimates on the internet. The 2021 prize money for the closest guess was $233,591.
Because so much money and interest depends on the time of ice breakup, it has been recorded to the nearest minute with great accuracy ever since 1917. And because a standard measure of
breakup has been used throughout this time, the data are consistent. We will investigate if we can use the past data to make a good prediction of the next breakup time.
This Excel file Nenana Ice Breakup Times shows the data from the beginning of the contest through 2021. To acquire some understanding of the data you should make a scatterplot of the data
with "Year (since 1900)" on the x-axis and "Day Number" on the y-axis.
Column C lists the ice breakup for each year as the number of days from the beginning that year starting with January 1 as day 1. For example, the breakup in 1998 is listed as 109.7045
days from January 1, 1998. Day 109 of 1998 is April 19; 0.7045 days is an additional 16.908 hours, or 16 hours and 54 minutes. Therefore the breakup in 1998 occurred on April 20, 4:54
PM. As another example, in 1992 (a leap year), the breakup time is listed as 134.2684. Day number 134 in 1992 is May 13; 0.2684 days is an additional 6.4416 hours, or 6 hours and 26
minutes. Therefore the breakup occurred on May 14, 6:26 AM.
Question 1. Exclude the data for 2021 and find the slope and intercept of the least squares line using "Year (since 1900)" as the predictor variable (x-variable) and "Day Number" as the
response variable (y-variable).

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