Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs asN = 1;000 + 9Xwhere X = time period (months); January 2002 = 0N = monthly bed needsAssume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years:MONTH ADJUSTMENT FACTOR (%)January +5April −15July +4November −5December −25a. Forecast Metropolitan’s bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007.b. If the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded, what seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?YEAR FORECAST ACTUAL2007 1,045 1,0962006 937 9932005 829 8972004 721 7512003 613 6282002 505 560
Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs as
N = 1;000 + 9X
where X = time period (months); January 2002 = 0
N = monthly bed needs
Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years:
MONTH ADJUSTMENT FACTOR (%)
January +5
April −15
July +4
November −5
December −25
a.
b. If the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded, what seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?
YEAR FORECAST ACTUAL
2007 1,045 1,096
2006 937 993
2005 829 897
2004 721 751
2003 613 628
2002 505 560
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