Matrix below indicates PROFIT expected from 4 alternatives under 4 states of nature. Determine which alternative is dominant using With and Without Probability (use a = 0.3 and probability of: 30%, ; 20%; 40% & 10% for S1, S2, S3, and S4 respectively): Alternatives S1 S2 S3 S4 A1 10 20 18 15 A2 12 15 25 20 АЗ 15 18 19 25 A4 13 16 30 18

Matrix below indicates PROFIT expected from 4 alternatives under 4 states of nature. Determine which alternative is dominant using With and Without Probability (use a = 0.3 and probability of: 30%, ; 20%; 40% & 10% for S1, S2, S3, and S4 respectively): Alternatives S1 S2 S3 S4 A1 10 20 18 15 A2 12 15 25 20 АЗ 15 18 19 25 A4 13 16 30 18

Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach

5th Edition

ISBN:9781337106665

Author:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Publisher:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Chapter17: Making Decisions With Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 2MC

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Matrix below indicates PROFIT expected from 4 alternatives under 4 states of nature. Determine which alternative is dominant using With and Without Probability (use a = 0.3 and probability of: 30% 20%; 40% & 10% for S1, S2, S3, and 54 respectively): Wich alternative is best using minimax regret? Alternatives 53 S4 A1 A2 A3 A4 S1 10 12 15 13 S2 20 15 18 16 18 25 19 30 15 20 25 18
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 What is the expected value of the market research information?…
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. Use expected value to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
Consider the following cost matrix: No probabilities are known for the occurrence of the nature states. Compare the solutions obtained by each of the following criteria: (a) Laplace (b) Maximin(Minimax) (c) Savage (d) Hurwitz (assume that alpha = 0.8)
While drilling a wildcat well, a tool is stuck. The engineers have two options: (1) to fish for the tool or • (2) sidetrack the well above the stuck position. The cost for each option and the associated probabilities are given in the table that follows. Based on expected value analysis, select the most economically viable option. Outcome Probability Cost, MS Fishing Routine 35% 126 Troublesome 65% 380 Sidetrack Immediately Routine 85% 245 Troublesome 15% 436
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Data in the matrix below indicates COST expected from 3 alternatives under 4 states of nature. Determine which alternative is dominant using With and Without Probability (use a = 0.3 and probability of: 30%; 20%; 40% & 10% for S1, S2, S3, and 54 respectively): Which alternative is best using Expected Value? Alternatives S1 53 S4 A1 10 18 15 A2 12 25 20 A3 15 19 25 S2 20 15 18
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