lou work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon- toring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample of quarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singapore lollars), Yt, t : rend model, yt = Bo + B1TIME; + Et, 1990.1, ..., 2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption iidN(0, o²), obtain- where & ng the estimates Bo = 0.51, ß1 = 2.30, and ô² 16. Based upon your stimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and density

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You work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon-
itoring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample of
quarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singapore
dollars), Yt, t =
1990.1,
2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption
....
trend model, Yt = Bo + B1TIME + Et, where & ~
iidN(0, o²), obtain-
ing the estimates Bo = 0.51, B1
2.30, and ô?
16. Based upon your
estimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and density
forecasts for 2010.1.
a Find the exact value of the point forecast
2010.01.
b Provide the distribution of the density forecast at 2010.01.
c Provide interval forecasts for 68% and 90% confidence levels.
Transcribed Image Text:You work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon- itoring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample of quarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singapore dollars), Yt, t = 1990.1, 2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption .... trend model, Yt = Bo + B1TIME + Et, where & ~ iidN(0, o²), obtain- ing the estimates Bo = 0.51, B1 2.30, and ô? 16. Based upon your estimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and density forecasts for 2010.1. a Find the exact value of the point forecast 2010.01. b Provide the distribution of the density forecast at 2010.01. c Provide interval forecasts for 68% and 90% confidence levels.
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