le 1 showed data on accidents involving trains. Is it plausible that the collision counts are independent Poisson variates with constant rate over the 29 years? Respond by comparing a Poisson regression for collision rates that contains only an intercept term with a Poisson regression that contains also a time trend. The deviances of the two models are 35.1 and 23.5. A negative binomial model is fitted. The estimated collision rate x years after 1975 was e-4.20(e-0.0337)x=(0.015)(0.967)x. The ML estimate  β(hat)=−0.0337 has SE = 0.0130. Conduct the Wald test of H0: β = 0 against H1: β =/= 0 The likelihood-ratio 95% confidence interval for β is (−0.060, −0.008). Find the interval for the multiplicative annual effect on the accident rate, and interpret.

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Table 1 showed data on accidents involving trains.

  • Is it plausible that the collision counts are independent Poisson variates with constant rate over the 29 years? Respond by comparing a Poisson regression for collision rates that contains only an intercept term with a Poisson regression that contains also a time trend. The deviances of the two models are 35.1 and 23.5.
  • A negative binomial model is fitted. The estimated collision rate x years after 1975 was e-4.20(e-0.0337)x=(0.015)(0.967)x. The ML estimate  β(hat)=−0.0337 has SE = 0.0130. Conduct the Wald test of H0: β = 0 against H1: β =/= 0
  • The likelihood-ratio 95% confidence interval for β is (−0.060, −0.008). Find the interval for the multiplicative annual effect on the accident rate, and interpret.
Train
Year Train-km Collisions
2003
2002
518
516
508
503
505
487
463
437
0
1
423
415
425
430
439
431
436
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
Source: British Department of Transport.
1
0
1
212OINI4
Train-road
Train
Collisions Year Train-km Collisions
0
AANNIANW334
4
2
2
2
4
6
2
4
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
443
397
414
418
389
401
372
417
430
426
430
425
426
436
212OSANNSINS
0
5
3
5
Train-road
Collisions
4
6
13
5
3
7
3
2
2
3
4
8
12
2
Transcribed Image Text:Train Year Train-km Collisions 2003 2002 518 516 508 503 505 487 463 437 0 1 423 415 425 430 439 431 436 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 Source: British Department of Transport. 1 0 1 212OINI4 Train-road Train Collisions Year Train-km Collisions 0 AANNIANW334 4 2 2 2 4 6 2 4 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 443 397 414 418 389 401 372 417 430 426 430 425 426 436 212OSANNSINS 0 5 3 5 Train-road Collisions 4 6 13 5 3 7 3 2 2 3 4 8 12 2
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