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MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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jus a and b thanks

2 Viral Outbreak Viral fragments have been detected in a local waste-water sample. The virus may turn out to be either highly infectious, moderately infectious or not infectious. The government must decide whether or not to place the local area into a two week lockdown. Without a lockdown the cost to the local economy is $800M (M=million) for a highly infectious virus, $150M for a moderately infectious virus, or $20M for a not infectious virus. Implementing a two week lockdown has a cost of $200M to the local economy in addition to $80M if the virus is highly infectious, $10M if the virus is moderately infections, or $1M if the virus is not contagious. You are appointed as an adviser to the government on this decision. (a) Construct the payoff table for this decision. (b) Calculate the EMVS for the two decisions (“No Lockdown", “Lockdown") if the probabil- ities of highly, moderately and not infectious are 0.2, 0.45 and 0.35 respectively. (c) What would be a sensible objective in this scenario and, based on your calculations, what do you advise the government to do?
Transcribed Image Text:2 Viral Outbreak Viral fragments have been detected in a local waste-water sample. The virus may turn out to be either highly infectious, moderately infectious or not infectious. The government must decide whether or not to place the local area into a two week lockdown. Without a lockdown the cost to the local economy is $800M (M=million) for a highly infectious virus, $150M for a moderately infectious virus, or $20M for a not infectious virus. Implementing a two week lockdown has a cost of $200M to the local economy in addition to $80M if the virus is highly infectious, $10M if the virus is moderately infections, or $1M if the virus is not contagious. You are appointed as an adviser to the government on this decision. (a) Construct the payoff table for this decision. (b) Calculate the EMVS for the two decisions (“No Lockdown", “Lockdown") if the probabil- ities of highly, moderately and not infectious are 0.2, 0.45 and 0.35 respectively. (c) What would be a sensible objective in this scenario and, based on your calculations, what do you advise the government to do?
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A payoff table illustrates all possible profits or losses. It is often used in decision making under uncertainty. The Expected Payoff refers to the gain or loss expected with each outcome. If there are multiple decisions to be made, a business will calculate the expected value for each decision to determine which is most favorable. EMV stands for Expected monetary value. It is a risk management technique to help quantify and compare risks in many aspects of the project.

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