John, the financial manager of Zenith Ltd, has submitted a proposal for manufacturing a new product, known as Blue. The initial investment for the new project can be estimated at Rs 50,000,000 with certainty.Moreover, the cash inflows for the first three years would have the following distributions: Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Cash Flow (Rs) Probability Cash Flow (Rs) Probability Cash Flow (Rs) Probability 15,000,000 0.4 20,000,000 0.4 25,000,000 0.3 20,000,000 0.3 25,000,000 0.4 30,000,000 0.5 30,000,000 0.3 30,000,000 0.2 40,000,000 0.2 Only two figures that is the expected net present value and the probability that the net present value would be less than Zero, want to be known by John. He seeks your help in calculating the figures using a discount rate of 10 %. REQUIRED: (a) Calculate the Expected Net Present Value and the Standard Deviation of the Net Present Value using the Hillier Model. (b) Calculate probability that the net present value would be less than Zero.
Net Present Value
Net present value is the most important concept of finance. It is used to evaluate the investment and financing decisions that involve cash flows occurring over multiple periods. The difference between the present value of cash inflow and cash outflow is termed as net present value (NPV). It is used for capital budgeting and investment planning. It is also used to compare similar investment alternatives.
Investment Decision
The term investment refers to allocating money with the intention of getting positive returns in the future period. For example, an asset would be acquired with the motive of generating income by selling the asset when there is a price increase.
Factors That Complicate Capital Investment Analysis
Capital investment analysis is a way of the budgeting process that companies and the government use to evaluate the profitability of the investment that has been done for the long term. This can include the evaluation of fixed assets such as machinery, equipment, etc.
Capital Budgeting
Capital budgeting is a decision-making process whereby long-term investments is evaluated and selected based on whether such investment is worth pursuing in future or not. It plays an important role in financial decision-making as it impacts the profitability of the business in the long term. The benefits of capital budgeting may be in the form of increased revenue or reduction in cost. The capital budgeting decisions include replacing or rebuilding of the fixed assets, addition of an asset. These long-term investment decisions involve a large number of funds and are irreversible because the market for the second-hand asset may be difficult to find and will have an effect over long-time spam. A right decision can yield favorable returns on the other hand a wrong decision may have an effect on the sustainability of the firm. Capital budgeting helps businesses to understand risks that are involved in undertaking capital investment. It also enables them to choose the option which generates the best return by applying the various capital budgeting techniques.
John, the
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |||
| Cash Flow (Rs) | Probability | Cash Flow (Rs) | Probability | Cash Flow (Rs) | Probability |
| 15,000,000 | 0.4 | 20,000,000 | 0.4 | 25,000,000 | 0.3 |
| 20,000,000 | 0.3 | 25,000,000 | 0.4 | 30,000,000 | 0.5 |
| 30,000,000 | 0.3 | 30,000,000 | 0.2 | 40,000,000 | 0.2 |
Only two figures that is the expected
REQUIRED:
(a) Calculate the Expected Net Present Value and the Standard Deviation of the Net Present Value using the Hillier Model.
(b) Calculate probability that the net present value would be less than Zero.
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