John flies frequently and likes to upgrade his seat to first class. He has determined that if he checks in for his flight at least 2 hours early, the probability that he will get the upgrade is0.8)otherwise, the probability that he will get the upgrade is 0.3)With his busy schedule, he checks in at least 2 hours before his flight only 40% of the time. What is the probability that for a randomly selected trip John will be able to upgrade to first class? 37.

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3.43
John flies frequențly and likes to upgrade his seat to first class. He has determined that if he checks
in for his flight at least 2 hours early, the probability that he will get the upgrade is0.8)otherwise, the
probability that he will get the upgrade is 0.3)With his busy schedule, he checks in at least 2, hours
before his flight only 40% of the time. What is the probability that for a randomly selected trip John
will be able to upgrade to first class?
37.
3.44
A diagnostic test for a certain disease has 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity. Only 1% of the
population has the disease in question. If the diagnostic test reports that a person chosen at random
from the population tests positive, what is the conditional probability that the person does, in fact,
have the disease? Are you surprised by the size of the answer? Do you consider this diagnostic test
reliable?
3.45 Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. The failure rate is 30%
for method A and 10% for method B. Method B is more expensive, however, and hence is used only
20% of the time. (Method A is used the other 80% of the time.) A worker is taught the skill by one
of the two methods, but he fails to learn it correctly. What is the probability that he was taught by
using method A?
A mumps vaccine was licensed in the United States in 1967. The American Committee on Immu-
zaion Practices recommended routine vaccination of children 12 months and older in 1977. Most
children receive an MMR
11a) vaccination at 15 months. In recent years, there
Transcribed Image Text:(0.05/ (o.35) 3.43 John flies frequențly and likes to upgrade his seat to first class. He has determined that if he checks in for his flight at least 2 hours early, the probability that he will get the upgrade is0.8)otherwise, the probability that he will get the upgrade is 0.3)With his busy schedule, he checks in at least 2, hours before his flight only 40% of the time. What is the probability that for a randomly selected trip John will be able to upgrade to first class? 37. 3.44 A diagnostic test for a certain disease has 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity. Only 1% of the population has the disease in question. If the diagnostic test reports that a person chosen at random from the population tests positive, what is the conditional probability that the person does, in fact, have the disease? Are you surprised by the size of the answer? Do you consider this diagnostic test reliable? 3.45 Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. The failure rate is 30% for method A and 10% for method B. Method B is more expensive, however, and hence is used only 20% of the time. (Method A is used the other 80% of the time.) A worker is taught the skill by one of the two methods, but he fails to learn it correctly. What is the probability that he was taught by using method A? A mumps vaccine was licensed in the United States in 1967. The American Committee on Immu- zaion Practices recommended routine vaccination of children 12 months and older in 1977. Most children receive an MMR 11a) vaccination at 15 months. In recent years, there
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