It is assumed that 1% of Canadian females above the age of 60 have a certain cancer. A simple test has false negative rate at 2% and false positive rate at 0.5%. That is, given that a a woman does not have cancer, the probability that the test is positive (suggests cancer) is 0.5%. This is referred to as a false positive. On the other hand if the woman does have cancer, it is not detected by the test about 2% of the time (this is called a false negative). For each of the following questions, define the events required for the calculation and find the probability. (a) Find the probability that the test result for a randomly selected Canadian female above the age of 60 tests positive. (b) If the test result is positive, what's the probability that the person has cancer? (c) If the test result is negative, what's the probability that the person does not have cancer?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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It is assumed that 1% of Canadian females above the age of 60 have a certain cancer. A simple test
has false negative rate at 2% and false positive rate at 0.5%. That is, given that a a woman does not
have cancer, the probability that the test is positive (suggests cancer) is 0.5%. This is referred to as a
false positive. On the other hand if the woman does have cancer, it is not detected by the test about
2% of the time (this is called a false negative). For each of the following questions, define the events
required for the calculation and find the probability.
(a) Find the probability that the test result for a randomly selected Canadian female above the age
of 60 tests positive.
(b) If the test result is positive, what's the probability that the person has cancer?
(c) If the test result is negative, what's the probability that the person does not have cancer?
Transcribed Image Text:It is assumed that 1% of Canadian females above the age of 60 have a certain cancer. A simple test has false negative rate at 2% and false positive rate at 0.5%. That is, given that a a woman does not have cancer, the probability that the test is positive (suggests cancer) is 0.5%. This is referred to as a false positive. On the other hand if the woman does have cancer, it is not detected by the test about 2% of the time (this is called a false negative). For each of the following questions, define the events required for the calculation and find the probability. (a) Find the probability that the test result for a randomly selected Canadian female above the age of 60 tests positive. (b) If the test result is positive, what's the probability that the person has cancer? (c) If the test result is negative, what's the probability that the person does not have cancer?
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