Is it correct? Should John be happy? (Give YOUR EXPLANATION for the probabilities for John to be pardoned))
Three guys John, Paul and Peter are on a death row in GA. Governor decided to pardon one of them randomly chosen. He told the name of the pardoned to the gourd. Night before execution, each prisoner is in his own cell and none are supposed to know
who will be pardoned. John asks the guard to give him the name from the other two who will be executed. Guard answers that Peter will be executed. John gets happier - before the guard gave him the name, his probability to survive was 1/3, and now when he knows that either him or Paul will be pardoned, his probability to survive is higher = 1/2. Is it correct? Should John be happy?
(Give YOUR EXPLANATION for the probabilities for John to be pardoned))
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