In order to ensure the quality of concrete material used in a reinforced concrete construction, concrete cylinders are collected at random from concrete mixes delivered to construction site from a mixing plant. Past records of concrete from this same plant show th 75% of concrete mixes are good or of satisfactory quality. To further ensure that the concre delivered on site is of good quality, the engineer requires that one concrete cylinder among collected each day be tested (after 14 days of curing) for minimum compressive strength. Th reliability of the test method is only 85%, meaning that the probability a good quality concre pass the test is 0.85, or that a poor quality cylinder can pass the test is 0.15. It is desired to ob the following information: 1. If a concrete cylinder passed the test, what is the updated probability that good-qua concrete was delivered at the site; and 2. If a second cylinder is tested and also passes the test, what is the updated probability that good-quality concrete was delivered at the site

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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In order to ensure the quality of concrete material used in a reinforced concrete
construction, concrete cylinders are collected at random from concrete mixes delivered to the
construction site from a mixing plant. Past records of concrete from this same plant show that
75% of concrete mixes are good or of satisfactory quality. To further ensure that the concrete
delivered on site is of good quality, the engineer requires that one concrete cylinder among those
collected each day be tested (after 14 days of curing) for minimum compressive strength. The
reliability of the test method is only 85%, meaning that the probability a good quality concrete
pass the test is 0.85, or that a poor quality cylinder can pass the test is 0.15. It is desired to obtain
the following information:
1. If a concrete cylinder passed the test, what is the updated probability that good-quality
concrete was delivered at the site; and
2. If a second cylinder is tested and also passes the test, what is the updated probability
that good-quality concrete was delivered at the site.
Transcribed Image Text:In order to ensure the quality of concrete material used in a reinforced concrete construction, concrete cylinders are collected at random from concrete mixes delivered to the construction site from a mixing plant. Past records of concrete from this same plant show that 75% of concrete mixes are good or of satisfactory quality. To further ensure that the concrete delivered on site is of good quality, the engineer requires that one concrete cylinder among those collected each day be tested (after 14 days of curing) for minimum compressive strength. The reliability of the test method is only 85%, meaning that the probability a good quality concrete pass the test is 0.85, or that a poor quality cylinder can pass the test is 0.15. It is desired to obtain the following information: 1. If a concrete cylinder passed the test, what is the updated probability that good-quality concrete was delivered at the site; and 2. If a second cylinder is tested and also passes the test, what is the updated probability that good-quality concrete was delivered at the site.
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