In a backyard vineyard in Napa valley, if the weather works well (just right), rain in the spring and dry through the summer, the yield for each vine is distributed roughly binomial with N=700, p = .5 . In a drought the yield is binomial with N=720, p = .43, while if the year is too wet, the yield of useful grapes per vine is N=650, p = .3 . Under climate change the probability of a just right year is about .4, of a too wet year is .1, and a dry year is .5. On a just right year the wine can sell for 120 dollars/bottle, on a dry year the quality drops so it will sell for 60 dollars a bottle, on wet year it will sell for 20 dollars a bottle. (For a Z score with absolute value >5 assume the probability is 0).  The yield for all 10 Vines was more than 3530 grapes. Given this yield: What is the probability that you will be able to sell for $120 a bottle? What is the probability that you will be selling for $60 a bottle? What is the probability that you can only sell for $20 a bottle? What is your expected Revenue per bottle?

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