How does the width of prediction intervals for ARMA(p,q) models change as the forecast horizon increases? Grows to infinity at a square root rate Depends on the model parameters Converges to a fixed value Grows to infinity at a linear rate
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- If your graphing calculator is capable of computing a least-squares sinusoidal regression model, use it to find a second model for the data. Graph this new equation along with your first model. How do they compare?A company that supplies gasoline to a city has recorded the weeklyusage (tons/week) for the past 3 years. The file BA2854GasolineRecord.xlsxcontains this record.(a) Propose a method for predicting the demand for gasoline. Use thatmethod to forecast demand for next year (weeks 157 to 208).(b) Improve your prediction in part (a) by including a statement about demand variability. (Hint: Look at or the range of the data.) week demand (tons) 1 1174.5 2 1316.2 3 1197 4 1127.3 5 1193.1 6 1260.7 7 1378.2 8 1273.7 9 1366.4 10 1113 11 1177.7 12 1056 13 1291.2 14 1269.1 15 1289.6 16 1181 17 1249 18 1212 19 1286.2 20 1204.8 21 1266.2 22 1332.4 23 1236.3 24 1266.1 25 1415.3 26 1100.1 27 1208.1 28 1505.1 29 1282.7 30 1190.5 31 1152.8 32 1089.7 33 1404.7 34 1308.6 35 1255.4 36 1106.7 37 1484.6 38 1317.4 39 1294.7 40 1154 41 1449.9 42 1174.9 43 1466.9 44 1282.4 45 1228 46 1174 47 1196.2 48 1443.8 49…Stoaches are fictional creatures that are extremely territorial. A regression model has been fit to predict the number ? b of baby stoaches (“stoachlings”) that a female stoach will give birth to each spring, on the basis of territorial area ? a : ?̂=0.237+0.039?. b ^ = 0.237 + 0.039 a . Assume a female stoach has 91 m2 2 of territory, and that it is valid to make a prediction. Predict the expected number of stoachlings. (Give your answer to 3 decimal places.) Predicted number of stoachlings:
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- A production supervisor at a major chemical company wishes to determine whether a new catalyst, catalyst XA-100, increases the mean hourly yield of a chemical process beyond the current mean hourly yield, which is known to be roughly equal to, but no more than, 750 pounds per hour. To test the new catalyst, five trial runs using catalyst XA-100 are made. Assuming that all factors affecting yields of the process have been held as constant as possible during the test runs, it is reasonable to regard the five yields obtained using the new catalyst as a random sample from the population of all possible yields that would be obtained by using the new catalyst. Furthermore, we will assume that this population is approximately normally distributed. Regard the sample of 5 trial runs for which s = 19.00 as a preliminary sample. Determine the number of trial runs of the chemical process needed to make us: (Round up your answers to the next whole number.) (a) 95 percent confident that x¯ , the…Run a simple linear regression in SPSS to know if previous experience (‘prevexp’: Previous Experience-months) significantly predicts current salary(‘salary’: Current Salary) in the work force . Use α =.05 Does Previous Experience significantly predict Current Salary? Report Beta(β), and the p-value (p).Suppose a logistic model has been fitted to a data set and the ROC curve has been plotted. If the point with sensitivity = a and specificity = B is on the curve, what are the smallest and largest values for the area under the curve?
- A police station had to deploy police officers for emergencies multiple times the lastfour evenings. The numbers of emergencies for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, andThursday were 7, 4, 8, and 11, respectively. What would be the station’s forecast forFriday using an exponential smoothing forecasting approach? Use α = 0.3 and aforecast for Monday of 9.Below is data of lobster sales volume from a seafood company. We're are using exponential smoothing (α = 0.5) and 3-year moving average to forecast it. a) Fill the blanks above and write your processes below. b) What are the mean absolute deviations (MADs) of the two methods? Whichmethod will you choose based on the results? *Please solve for a-b, either type your work and answers or write them neatly on paper* thank you!Can the regression equation reasonably be used to make predictions
