Historical demand for a product is as follows. The sales manager wants to test various forecasting methods to see which method works better during this period. Month Demand January 110 February 130 March 150 April 170 Мay 160 June 180 July 140 August 130 September 140 a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average (3-MAD). b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April.

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answer part b only

Historical demand for a product is as follows. The sales manager wants to test various forecasting
methods to see which method works better during this period.
Month
Demand
January
110
February
130
March
150
April
170
May
160
June
180
July
140
August
130
September
140
a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average (3-MAD).
b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 to estimate April through September,
using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April.
c. Use 3-MAD from part (a) above to decide which method produced the better forecast over
the six-month period.
d. Follow part (b) above but using an alpha of 0.8 this time. Discuss the forecasting errors
produced by using the two different exponential smoothing constants.
Transcribed Image Text:Historical demand for a product is as follows. The sales manager wants to test various forecasting methods to see which method works better during this period. Month Demand January 110 February 130 March 150 April 170 May 160 June 180 July 140 August 130 September 140 a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average (3-MAD). b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April. c. Use 3-MAD from part (a) above to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six-month period. d. Follow part (b) above but using an alpha of 0.8 this time. Discuss the forecasting errors produced by using the two different exponential smoothing constants.
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