Heidi manages a firm that is going to start operating in a new market. She has the option of targeting either "high end" consumers or "low end" consumers. She has some uncertainty regarding actual market conditions in each of these two segments. Very loosely, she thinks that market conditions in each segment could be either "favorable" or "unfavorable." The probability of "favorable" versus "unfavorable" conditions in each market segment (along with her resulting profit in each case) is: Market High end Low end Condition Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Probability р 1-p q 1-q Profit $800,000 $200,000 $500,000 $400,000 a. Draw the decision tree for this decision problem. 2 3 b. If p== and q= Which segment should she serve? Explain. 4 2 c. Suppose p=- For what range of q should she serve the "low end" consumers? 5 3 d. Suppose q=. For what range of p should she serve the "low end" consumers? 4*

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Problem 4:
Heidi manages a firm that is going to start operating in a new market. She has the option of
targeting either "high end" consumers or "low end" consumers. She has some uncertainty
regarding actual market conditions in each of these two segments. Very loosely, she thinks that
market conditions in each segment could be either "favorable" or "unfavorable." The
probability of "favorable" versus "unfavorable" conditions in each market segment (along with
her resulting profit in each case) is:
Market
High end
Low end
3
b. If p= and q=
=/²/²
4
q
1-q
a. Draw the decision tree for this decision problem.
Condition
Favorable
Unfavorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
c. Suppose p=
Probability
р
1-p
d. Suppose q=
Profit
$800,000
$200,000
$500,000
$400,000
p=²/1.f
For what range of q should she serve the "low end" consumers?
Which segment should she serve? Explain.
3
For what range of p should she serve the "low end" consumers?
4
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 4: Heidi manages a firm that is going to start operating in a new market. She has the option of targeting either "high end" consumers or "low end" consumers. She has some uncertainty regarding actual market conditions in each of these two segments. Very loosely, she thinks that market conditions in each segment could be either "favorable" or "unfavorable." The probability of "favorable" versus "unfavorable" conditions in each market segment (along with her resulting profit in each case) is: Market High end Low end 3 b. If p= and q= =/²/² 4 q 1-q a. Draw the decision tree for this decision problem. Condition Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable c. Suppose p= Probability р 1-p d. Suppose q= Profit $800,000 $200,000 $500,000 $400,000 p=²/1.f For what range of q should she serve the "low end" consumers? Which segment should she serve? Explain. 3 For what range of p should she serve the "low end" consumers? 4
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