graded belief violates one of the Kolmogorov axioms or rules for probability functions

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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In the following problem you will be presented with scenarios in which an agent's graded belief violates one of the Kolmogorov axioms or rules for probability functions. Your task is to come up with a Dutch Book for this agent.
In the following problem you will be presented with scenarios in which an agent's graded belief violates one
of the Kolmogorov axioms or rules for probability functions. Your task is to come up with a Dutch Book for
this agent.
(a) Rule 1: P(S) = 1
Suppose Carol believes that P(S) = 0.9 in a manner inconsistent with Rule 1. Find a Dutch Book for
Carol. There are multiple possible answers here. So justify your answer. Hint: what do you need to
check for a Dutch Book?
(b) Rule 2: 0P(E) ≤ 1 for any event ECS
Suppose Dominic believes that there is an event E such that P(E) < 0 thus violating Rule 2. Find a
Dutch Book for Dominic. There are multiple possible answers here. So justify your answer. Hint: what
do you need to check for a Dutch Book?
Transcribed Image Text:In the following problem you will be presented with scenarios in which an agent's graded belief violates one of the Kolmogorov axioms or rules for probability functions. Your task is to come up with a Dutch Book for this agent. (a) Rule 1: P(S) = 1 Suppose Carol believes that P(S) = 0.9 in a manner inconsistent with Rule 1. Find a Dutch Book for Carol. There are multiple possible answers here. So justify your answer. Hint: what do you need to check for a Dutch Book? (b) Rule 2: 0P(E) ≤ 1 for any event ECS Suppose Dominic believes that there is an event E such that P(E) < 0 thus violating Rule 2. Find a Dutch Book for Dominic. There are multiple possible answers here. So justify your answer. Hint: what do you need to check for a Dutch Book?
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