GloboSnax has an overall 10% success rate when introducing new products. (Suppose success here means a product achieves a certain target market share within 2 years of its introduction.) Before roll-out, a secret forecasting committee assesses each new product, and calls it a “winner" or “loser." In the past, the committee has done reasonably well in distinguishing between successful and unsuccessful products: • 90% of products that went on to succeed were correctly called “winners" by the committee. • 80% of products that went on to fail were correctly called “losers" by the committee. A new product, CocoChips is evaluated and labeled a “winner" by the committee. 5. What would be a plausible intuitive probability judgment for the quantity in question 4 from someone exhibiting base-rate neglect? Explain.
GloboSnax has an overall 10% success rate when introducing new products. (Suppose success here means a product achieves a certain target market share within 2 years of its introduction.) Before roll-out, a secret forecasting committee assesses each new product, and calls it a “winner" or “loser." In the past, the committee has done reasonably well in distinguishing between successful and unsuccessful products: • 90% of products that went on to succeed were correctly called “winners" by the committee. • 80% of products that went on to fail were correctly called “losers" by the committee. A new product, CocoChips is evaluated and labeled a “winner" by the committee. 5. What would be a plausible intuitive probability judgment for the quantity in question 4 from someone exhibiting base-rate neglect? Explain.
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Transcribed Image Text:GloboSnax has an overall 10% success rate when introducing new products. (Suppose success here means a product
achieves a certain target market share within 2 years of its introduction.)
Before roll-out, a secret forecasting committee assesses each new product, and calls it a "winner" or “loser." In the past,
the committee has done reasonably well in distinguishing between successful and unsuccessful products:
• 90% of products that went on to succeed were correctly called "winners" by the committee.
• 80% of products that went on to fail were correctly called “losers" by the committee.
A new product, CocoChips is evaluated and labeled a “winner" by the committee.
5.
What would be a plausible intuitive probability judgment for the quantity in question 4 from someone
exhibiting base-rate neglect? Explain.
Transcribed Image Text:GloboSnax has an overall 10% success rate when introducing new products. (Suppose success here means a product
achieves a certain target market share within 2 years of its introduction.)
Before roll-out, a secret forecasting committee assesses each new product, and calls it a "winner" or “loser." In the past,
the committee has done reasonably well in distinguishing between successful and unsuccessful products:
• 90% of products that went on to succeed were correctly called “winners" by the committee.
• 80% of products that went on to fail were correctly called “losers" by the committee.
A new product, CocoChips is evaluated and labeled a “winner" by the committee.
4.
Based on the information available, calculate the probability that CocoChips will succeed, given the
"winner" classification from the forecasting committee. (Hint: you can use a 2x2 table, and/or Bayes Rule formula
to help compute your answer.)
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