Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with α=0.1 and α=0.6 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use Mad and MEE to decide which of the two models produce a netter forecast. (Assume the forecast for Period 1 is 17) Period Actual Forecast 1 14 17 2 16 3 16 4 11 5 12 6 17 a.What is the forecast for Period 6 when you use α=0.6? (Express it to 2 decimal places) Answer: b.What is the value of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) when α=0.6? Calculate to 3 decimal places. (Use all forecasted values from Period 1 to Period 6.) Answer: c.Which method produces a better forecast? (Use all forecasted values from Period 1 to Period 6.) Select one: α=0.1 produces a better forecast measured both by MAD and MSE. When we use MAD, α=0.1 produces a better forecast. When we use MSE, α=0.1 produces a better forecast. α=0.6 produces a better forecast measured both by MAD and MSE.
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with α=0.1 and α=0.6 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use Mad and MEE to decide which of the two models produce a netter forecast. (Assume the forecast for Period 1 is 17) Period Actual Forecast 1 14 17 2 16 3 16 4 11 5 12 6 17 a.What is the forecast for Period 6 when you use α=0.6? (Express it to 2 decimal places) Answer: b.What is the value of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) when α=0.6? Calculate to 3 decimal places. (Use all forecasted values from Period 1 to Period 6.) Answer: c.Which method produces a better forecast? (Use all forecasted values from Period 1 to Period 6.) Select one: α=0.1 produces a better forecast measured both by MAD and MSE. When we use MAD, α=0.1 produces a better forecast. When we use MSE, α=0.1 produces a better forecast. α=0.6 produces a better forecast measured both by MAD and MSE.
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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Question
- Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with α=0.1 and α=0.6 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use Mad and MEE to decide which of the two models produce a netter forecast. (Assume the forecast for Period 1 is 17)
Period |
Actual |
Forecast |
1 |
14 |
17 |
2 |
16 |
|
3 |
16 |
|
4 |
11 |
|
5 |
12 |
|
6 |
17 |
|
a.What is the forecast for Period 6 when you use α=0.6? (Express it to 2 decimal places)
Answer:
b.What is the value of
Answer:
c.Which method produces a better forecast? (Use all forecasted values from Period 1 to Period 6.)
Select one:
- α=0.1 produces a better forecast measured both by MAD and MSE.
- When we use MAD, α=0.1 produces a better forecast.
- When we use MSE, α=0.1 produces a better forecast.
- α=0.6 produces a better forecast measured both by MAD and MSE.
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