From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this. (1st photo) The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. (2nd photo) Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction = ____________ Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? ________________ Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? __________
From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?
In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.
Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc.
The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.
(1st photo)
The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly.
(2nd photo)
Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?
Prediction = ____________
Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?
________________
Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? __________
![AMD K5
log(y)
Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are
linked to Moore's law.
Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018)
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Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count)
The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic.
Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.
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Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018)
Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are
linked to Moore's law.
Our World
in Data
50,000,000,000
72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 O GC2 IPU
10,000,000,000
SPARC M7.
IBM 213 Storage Controller
18-core Xeon Haswell-E5
Xbox One main Soc
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1974
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2008
2014
2018
Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count)
The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic.
Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.
Transistor count
1972
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2010
2012
2016](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F94dd6ead-9f6e-4c49-89b5-1f2e2c725f5e%2Fda507563-0227-45c0-912b-7c412369486f%2Fnmk7ixd_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
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